Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

Tennis

2026-01-30 - Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Tennis : Australian Open Semi Final
Friday 30th January 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
12:30am (British Time)

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Preview

You could easily come to the conclusion that Carlos Alcaraz is a multiple time Champion at Melbourne Park after watching him ease past Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final.

Instead, the World Number 1 was winning a Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and in doing so was also ending the hopes of the home fans in seeing a men's winner at the event for the first time in fifty years.

Carlos Alcaraz is now two wins away from becoming the youngest men's player to complete the career Grand Slam, but he will have a lot of respect for the opponent in front of him.

Despite both being in the top three of the World Rankings, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev only met once in 2025 and that ended in a routine win for the Spaniard on the fast courts of Cincinnati back in August. That levelled up the career head to head between the players, but also means Alcaraz has won four of the seven matches since joining the elite on the Tour with a couple of the early losses at a time when the Spaniard was making his way up the World Rankings.

The three losses in that time underline the danger that Alexander Zverev does pose with a big serve backed up by enough on the ground to believe he can cause the upset.

It is the serve that has been a crucial weapon for Alexander Zverev in this tournament and the World Number 3 has long been comfortable playing in Melbourne. Last year he came up short in the Final, but Zverev continues to insist he is at his best health-wise right now and the German holds a win over Carlos Alcaraz on this court in the Quarter Final played two years ago.

Taking Alexander Zverev at face value with his assessment on his own health makes it understandable that the hard court numbers dipped as much as they did in 2025 and he will be well aware that he needs to serve very well to win this match.

This was the main reason he was able to hold off Learner Tien in the Quarter Final, while it was a big reason why Alexander Zverev was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz here a couple of years ago.

Of course the challenge for every player chasing the top two in the World Rankings is whether they can play at a high level for long enough to remain competitive.

Carlos Alcaraz looks to be getting stronger as this tournament progresses and he has not dropped a set in the last two Rounds against Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur. He has admitted working on the serve and that has seen him dominate behind that shot, while Alcaraz has won two of the last three hard court matches against this opponent.

The layers are expecting a straight-forward win for Carlos Alcaraz with the favoured scoreline being 3-0 in sets, while he has been asked to cover the same line that was in place for his Quarter Final match.

However, that does all feel a little disrespectful to Alexander Zverev who can make use of the conditions to get the maximum out of his serve.

He will have to begin this match with some confidence just to make sure he does not allow a frontrunner like Carlos Alcaraz to move through the gears.

As long as Alexander Zverev can continue to serve at the clip he has been in Melbourne, he has every chance of making this a competitive Semi Final and the two players may put enough games on the board to surpass this total.

Prediction

The likelihood is that Carlos Alcaraz will be making his fourth Grand Slam Final in a row.

However, this is an opponent that has challenged him and Alexander Zverev looks to be playing with enough confidence to make this more competitive than the last two opponents that Alcaraz has faced.

The Pick :

Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 Alexander Zverev

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 35.5 Total Games at 1.81 with Cloudbet