Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina

Tennis

2026-01-29 - Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina

A Sports Betting Preview by ArmchairPunter

Jessica Pegula v Elena Rybakina
Tennis : Australia Open: Women’s Semi-Final
Venue: Melbourne Park
Thursday 29th January 2026, 0930hrs (GMT)

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This semifinal sets up a high-level clash between two of the tour’s most consistent hard-court performers. Elena Rybakina, ranked No. 5, and Jessica Pegula, ranked No. 6, have both navigated the draw with authority, setting the stage for a contest likely decided by execution and first-strike efficiency.

In the quarter-final, Rybakina had a good straight sets win against Swiatek (7-5 6-1). During the match, Rybakina scored 67 points vs Swiatek’s 47. The Kazakhstani was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Rybakina’s run to the semifinals has been defined by control and aggression. She dropped just one set en route, most notably producing an emphatic straight-sets quarterfinal win over Iga Swiatek, 7-5, 6-1. In that match, Rybakina dictated play from the outset, winning 67 points to Swiatek’s 47 and striking 23 winners.

Her serve was particularly effective: 11 aces, only three double faults, and a strong return on first-serve points won (79%).

Pegula’s path to the semifinals has been equally convincing, highlighted by a straight-sets quarterfinal win over Amanda Anisimova, 6-2, 7-6(1). The American won 77 points in that match and matched Rybakina’s aggression, firing 26 winners while maintaining balance between offense and consistency.

On serve, Pegula has been solid rather than explosive. She struck six aces against Anisimova, committed just two double faults, and won a healthy percentage of points on both first (70%) and second serve (64%). Although she was broken twice, her ability to absorb pressure and respond immediately has been a recurring theme throughout the week.

The Betting Verdict

In the head-to-head, Pegula and Rybakina are locked at 3-3 but Pegula with the handicap looks the smart play here.

The Pick :

Jessica Pegula 2-1 Elena Rybakina

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Jessica Pegula +3.5 games h’cap at odds of 1.80 with Bet365