Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina

Tennis

2026-01-29 - Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina
Tennis : Australian Open Semi Final
Thursday 29th January 2025 - Scheduled 9:30pm
10:30am (British Time)

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Preview

Both Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina came through Quarter Finals in impressive fashion and that makes for a good looking Semi Final between players who have been amongst the best on the Tour for some time.

Both have played Grand Slam Finals, but it is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line when winning the title at Wimbledon.

Elena Rybakina also reached the Final right here in Melbourne six months after winning the title at SW19, but she came up short against Aryna Sabalenka in 2023. Since that defeat, her best Grand Slam runs have been at Wimbledon where she has reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final and, somewhat more surprisingly, at the French Open where Elena Rybakina has played in another Quarter Final.

However, despite the very strong hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, Elena Rybakina has struggled to make the second week at either of the two Slams played on that surface until this strong opening to the 2026 season.

Jessica Pegula had also reached a ceiling in her Grand Slam performances, but broke through to reach the Final at the US Open in 2024 and was a Semi Finalist in New York City back in September. Before 2024, Pegula had played in and been beaten in five Grand Slam Quarter Final matches, which includes in three straight years at the Australian Open.

There had also been signs that this was a player who was becoming a declining force, but the World Number 6 has really impressed in her run to the Semi Final in Australia over the last few days. She has beaten the defending Champion and Jessica Pegula came through a tight second set to beat Amanda Anisimova, who had reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, while also maintaining a run of having yet to drop a set in the tournament.

Her opponent has also come through in straight sets throughout the tournament and overcame a slow start to motor past Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final, which will have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in confidence.

The serve is proving to be a monster weapon for Rybakina and she has really gotten in to a nice rhythm behind that shot in the last two Rounds as the competition has increased.

It is going to need to be working as well to keep a lid on Jessica Pegula, but Elena Rybakina has to be confident having beaten the American twice on the hard courts in 2025. Both of those wins saw Elena Rybakina have a real edge on the serve and that is likely going to be a key factor in the outcome of this Semi Final, although Jessica Pegula's mental strength can not be dismissed.

The American has been the stronger return player in the tournament, but that has to be expected.

It is the Elena Rybakina second serve that can become a key in making sure that the Kazakhstan representative is not being pushed back early in rallies and she will certainly feel she has the easy power to come through this match.

You have to expect Elena Rybakina's serve to rack up the Ace count in this match- she has been flowing nicely in the last two Rounds and managed to put up 24 Aces in the two wins over Jessica Pegula last year with at least 9 in both wins.

Elena Rybakina also broke at least four times in both matches and she has the capabilities of hitting those marks again.

As mentioned, Rybakina has been finding some stellar rhythm on the serve and Madison Keys managed 4 Aces in her defeat to Jessica Pegula, while the World Number 5 has broken at least four times in each of the last four wins in the tournament.

You have to respect Jessica Pegula's capabilities of digging in and finding a way to turn points and games, which makes the spread dangerous, but putting the Ace count and Breaks of Serve together gives us an odds against quote for Elena Rybakina, who looks the stronger player overall.

Prediction

This is the first 'Bet Builder' used in the tournament, but the stats are pointing to another strong Elena Rybakina performance.

However, the spread looks in a dangerous spot considering the level being produced by Jessica Pegula and so backing a couple of stastical events to occur looks the play here.

The Pick :

Jessica Pegula 0-2 Elena Rybakina

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve & 5+ Aces (Bet Builder) at 2.20 with Bet365