Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

Tennis

2026-01-30 - Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner
Tennis : Australian Open Semi Final
Friday 30th January 2025 - Scheduled 11:30am
12:30am (British Time)

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Preview

The top four Seeds in the men's tournament have made it through to the Semi Final, but the two players competing in this one will feel they have had a bit of fortune on their side to make it through to the final four of the opening Grand Slam event of the season.

In the Third Round, Jannik Sinner looked to be cramping up and not being able to physically deal with the challenging conditions as he trailed by a break in the third set. Fortunately the heat rule was applied by the tournament organisers right at that point, which meant playing under a roof with controlled conditions and, most importantly, allowing the World Number 2 to just take in the liquid needed to get back somewhere close to full health.

He was fortunate at Wimbledon last year as well and Sinner took full advantage by winning his first title at that Grand Slam and the Italian has breezed past his last two opponents to take his place in the Semi Final here again.

So the defending Champion will be thankful, but there is so much more for Novak Djokovic to be thankful about as he looks to win a record twenty-fifth Grand Slam title.

Over the last eighteen months, Novak Djokovic has come to terms with the fact that beating both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz is going to be incredibly tough for him at this stage of his career- he has admitted he needs to get through the early Rounds of a Grand Slam as easily as possible to have enough in reserve to beat either of the top two players in the world, never mind knowing that he likely would have to beat both.

After coming through three opening wins easily, Novak Djokovic benefited from a walkover in the Fourth Round, which most have seen as a positive for him.

Even more luck was needed in the Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic admitted himself in the post-match interviews.

He was down 2-0 in sets against Lorenzo Musetti in that Quarter Final and looking unable to turn the tide with the Italian dominating, but an injury early in the third set meant the match came to an abrupt stop just four games into that set. Novak Djokovic was gracious enough to admit he felt he was 'going home', but he has made it through and some will think he is 'destined' to win at an event he has previously won ten times.

Novak Djokovic cannot keep hoping for some 'divine intervention', but he remains active at the Australian Open and that makes him a danger.

However, it is hard to imagine the last time Novak Djokovic would have been 8-1 to win a tennis match and that just underlines the gap that has developed between the long time dominant Champion and the two leading the ATP these days.

Last year, Novak Djokovic did upset Carlos Alcaraz here in Melbourne so his chances cannot be dismissed, but he has lost five matches in a row against Jannik Sinner, including at both the French Open and Wimbledon last year. Not only did Djokovic lose those matches, but he did not win a set, while even playing at his favourite Grand Slam might not make much of a difference when noting that he was crushed in four sets by Jannik Sinner here just two years ago.

The Novak Djokovic serve is declining from the level he once produced and he is no longer the best return player on the Tour, although his place in history is firmly secure for now.

These are things that Jannik Sinner just does better than Novak Djokovic in January 2026 and the World Number 2 has not dropped his serve in the last couple of Rounds. The feeling is that he is going to keep Djokovic under some pressure, while also being able to get his teeth into the return games more effectively than the Old King, and Jannik Sinner may end up producing a routine win like the one he did against the Serb in the Wimbledon Semi Final last July.

He broke the Novak Djokovic serve five times in that match and the way Lorenzo Musetti was able to break down that part of the Djokovic game will certainly offer Jannik Sinner plenty of encouragement.

It feels really wrong to be asking Jannik Sinner to cover this spread line against an opponent who has won the Australian Open ten times, but it does feel that time has gotten the better of Novak Djokovic and one of the top two players in the world can underline the difference at this stage of their careers.

Prediction

Perhaps there is some divine intervention at play and Novak Djokovic can win the tournament here for an eleventh time to make it twenty-five Grand Slam titles for the career.

He would surely head off into the sunset if that was to happen on Sunday, but everything points to Jannik Sinner ending that dream with another convincing win over the former World Number 1.

You just hate to bet against legends, but the younger, fresher, and stronger player should come through in pretty routine fashion.

The Pick :

Novak Djokovic 0-3 Jannik Sinner

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games at 1.91 with Bet365