CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - ATLETICO MADRID VS TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Champions League

2026-03-10 - Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Atletico Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 First Leg
Tuesday 10th March 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

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Atletico Madrid

There is little chance that Atletico Madrid will be able to chase down both Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Spanish title race, but they are well on course for another top four finish and a return to the Champions League next season. Progress to the Copa Del Rey Final and a place in the Champions League Last 16 does give Atletico Madrid something real to target in the weeks ahead as well and silverware is still a distinct possibility for the club.

A thumping home win over Club Brugge pushed Atletico Madrid into the Last 16 of the Champions League and they will be pretty comfortable with the draw and the placing in the bracket. The feeling is that home form is going to be incredibly important for Atletico Madrid if they are going to surpass expectations in the competition and the side have won 4 of the 5 Champions League games played here with the exception being a surprising 1-2 defeat to Bodo/Glimt on Match Day 8.

Atletico Madrid just about hung on for a Copa Del Rey Semi Final win over Barcelona, despite being beaten 3-0 away from home in the Second Leg, and that is the sole setback during a run of 4 wins in 5 games played in all competitions. After losing consecutive home games, Atletico Madrid have won 4 in a row here in all competitions which started with the 4-0 win over Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey Semi Final First Leg.

Rodrigo Mendoza has to be considered a doubt having picked up an injury this past weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur

Reports have suggested the Tottenham Hotspur board are considering replacing Igor Tudor after 3 successive defeats have left the team on the brink of dropping into the bottom three of the Premier League. They were not in action this past weekend, but Tottenham Hotspur's injury hit squad is still stretched and the 1-3 home loss to Crystal Palace last Thursday will be stinging.

Some of the best results earned this season have been in the Champions League and Tottenham Hotspur finished in the top eight of the League Phase, which meant an automatic spot in the Last 16. The side scored and conceded 7 goals in putting together a 1-2-1 away record in the competition, but this looks a significant challenge for Tottenham Hotspur to face.

Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 of the last 8 games in all competitions and been beaten in 5 in a row- the real concern has to be the amount of goals they have continued to concede with 9 alone in the three matches overseen by the interim manager. They have won just 2 of the last 12 away games in all competitions and Spurs have suffered 7 defeats in that time.

Djed Spence is closing on a return, while both Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are available. There are still a host of Tottenham Hotspur players on the sidelines through injury and that is really hurting the options available to Igor Tudor.

Head to Head

These two clubs have only met once before in the 1963 Cup Winners' Cup Final which was won convincingly by Tottenham Hotspur.

Prediction

The power of the English Premier League has frustrated a lot of the European clubs and seeing six teams in the Last 16 will only add to that.

However, the weakest by some distance is Tottenham Hotspur who are battling to retain Premier League status domestically.

Some will point out the top eight finish in the Champions League Group, which allowed Tottenham Hotspur a direct spot in the Last 16, but that performance was built on what looks to be a flaky fixture list at best.

Tottenham Hotspur have played eight Champions League matches this season- only one of those has made the Last 16, which also happened to be the one that Spurs lost at Paris Saint-Germain, while 5 failed to even reach the Knock Out Play Off Round.

Outside of Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid look to be comfortably the second best team Spurs will have played in the competition.

Scoring goals for fun at home makes Atletico Madrid very dangerous against a Tottenham Hotspur team who have conceded 9 goals in three matches under Igor Tudor. He does get to use his first choice centre half pairing for the first time together, but Tottenham Hotspur are absolutely stretched through injury throughout the squad and it is going to be very difficult to contain the hosts.

Atletico Madrid were beaten by Bodo/Glimt here in January and that prevented them from finishing in the top eight of the Champions League standings, but the 4-1 win over Club Brugge last month underlines the threat.

In a run of 4 straight home wins, Atletico Madrid have scored at least three times in each of those, while they have also gotten the better of Inter Milan here in the Champions League this season.

Diego Simeone's team have had challenges facing English opposition in recent times, but they have rarely faced one in such a weak position as Tottenham Hotspur.

Respect has to be given to the strength of the Premier League, but this feels like at least one of two ties where the Spanish Primera Division representatives deserve the edge in this Round of the Champions League.

With the goals being scored by Atletico Madrid, this could be another tough night for Igor Tudor and Tottenham Hotspur.

The Pick :

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Atletico Madrid to Win & Over 1 Total Goal (Bet Builder) at 1.72 with Bet365 (early payout if a team is leading by two goals)

HANDICAP BETTING :

Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga while Tottenham are languishing in 17th in the Premier League, so at first glance this looks like a foregone conclusion.

But Spurs finished 4th in the group stage, while Atletico were only 14th, which suggests the gap between the sides might not be quite as large as it first appears.

Group standings can be deceptive though. Spurs went 5-2-1 from their eight group games, while Atletico were 4-1-3 — not a huge difference in reality.

At the Metropolitano, Atletico have won five of their last six European home ties, beating Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt and neighbours Real Madrid. The only slip was a surprise 1–2 defeat to Bodo/Glimt — another reminder that the Norwegians are no one-hit wonder.

Tottenham’s away record in the Champions League has been respectable at 1-2-1, losing only to PSG and even managing a draw away in the Arctic Circle against that same Bodo/Glimt side.

Domestically though, Spurs are in dreadful form. Five straight league defeats have left them hovering just a point above the relegation zone.

The common wisdom is that Tottenham should sacrifice this tie and focus on the Premier League survival fight — but the manager doesn’t really have that luxury. With only 13 senior players currently fit, he’ll pick the best side he can and they’ll battle hard.

Even so, I still have Atletico about a goal better here and rate them roughly 70% likely to win. English teams are always dangerous opponents, so this could be a fairly cagey affair.

Likely result: ATLETICO MADRID 1–0 or 2–0
Atletico around 1.53 is acceptable, but Atletico to win to nil at 2.63 looks the better play.