CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PREVIEW - MANCHESTER CITY VS REAL MADRID

Champions League

2026-03-17 - Manchester City vs Real Madrid

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Manchester City v Real Madrid
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 Second Leg
Tuesday 17th March 2026 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

---

Manchester City

Two weeks ago, Manchester City fans must have been thinking about sweeping the board in terms of silverware, but things have changed dramatically in that time. They are still involved in both domestic Cups, but poor results in the Premier League and Champions League means Manchester City are scrambling to stay in contention for the two biggest prizes that they target at the start of any season.

The 1-1 draw at West Ham United completed a miserable week for Manchester City as they slipped to 9 points behind English leaders Arsenal. That came just days after the 3-0 defeat in the Spanish capital, which leaves Manchester City on the brink of yet another elimination by Real Madrid in the Champions League having been beaten by this opponent last season. The side have a 3-0-1 record at home in the Champions League, but a big task ahead of them.

Manchester City have slumped into a run of a single win in the last 4 games played in all competitions and that was in the FA Cup Fifth Round. The last game at home ended in a 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest and snapped Manchester City's 7 game winning run in front of the home supporters.

Some changes will be made to the starting eleven after recent results, but the lineup was a big reason Manchester City lost as they did in the First Leg and Pep Guardiola has to get that right.

Real Madrid

This may not be a vintage Real Madrid team and they have not been helped by injuries, but something happens in the European Cup setting and a memorable First Leg performance gives them a huge advantage in this Last 16 tie. It could have been even better if not for a Vinicius Jr Penalty miss in the second half and Real Madrid will be hoping that does not come back to haunt them.

After making hard work of Benfica in the Knock Out Play Off Round, Real Madrid were underdogs in this Last 16 tie, which makes the First Leg performance that much more impressive. The side have won 3 and lost 2 of the 5 away Champions League games played this season and Real Madrid have scored 12 goals and conceded 8 in those matches.

Real Madrid were comfortable winners this past weekend and have won 17 of the last 23 games in all competitions, although been beaten in the other 6 in that time. On Match Day 8 of the Champions League, Real Madrid were beaten 4-2 at Benfica, but have rallied to win 3 of the last 4 away games in all competitions.

Both Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe are set to miss out again and will be hoping the international break gives them a chance to return at full health. There are plenty of other issues within the Real Madrid squad and so a similar eleven that began the First Leg is expected to start here.

Head to Head

Real Madrid have now lost 1 of the last 6 games played against Manchester City and beat them 6-3 on aggregate in the Knock Out Play Off Round in February 2025.

Manchester City had won 3 in a row at home against Real Madrid, but have since been held to a draw and then beaten 2-3 here last season.

Prediction

If Vinicius Jr had scored the fourth goal last week, you would have accepted that this Last 16 tie is over as a contest.

A three goal lead looks like a big advantage, but Real Madrid's squad has been hit hard by injury and they cannot afford to overlook the chances of Manchester City, despite recent setbacks.

The reality is that Pep Guardiola got his team selection seriously wrong at the Santiago Bernebeu last week and Manchester City were still looking the better team before conceding in the first half. They capitulated a little bit from there, but it was also a clinical performance from Real Madrid and the counter attack is going to be key for the visiting team in this one.

Being without Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe makes things tougher, unsurprisingly, but Real Madrid showed what they can do in the First Leg.

However, in saying that, Manchester City have to believe the first goal here and earning that will give them a huge amount of momentum to take into the rest of the ninety minutes.

Results over the last couple of weeks have not been very good, but the underlying numbers suggest Manchester City have been wasteful at times. Erling Haaland losing form has really hurt, but there are players who have not been used as much as the supporters would have expected and that has come down to the manager and the selections being made.

Manchester City have a Cup Final coming up, but this is a tie they are focusing on and they can hurt Real Madrid.

If they have a similar team to the one that ended the First Leg, Manchester City will feel they can create chances and will be able to win this Second Leg at home.

Whether that is enough to force a way through to the Quarter Final is another question, but Manchester City are better than they showed last week and can win this Second Leg in a fixture in which they scorea at least twice.

The Pick :

Manchester City 3-1 Real Madrid

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Manchester City to Win & Over 1 Total Goal (Bet Builder) at 1.61 with Bet365 (early payout if a team is leading by two goals)