NCAA Basketball BETTING PREVIEW - Iowa Hawkyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini

NCAA Basketball

2026-03-28 - Iowa Hawkyes at Illinois Fighting Illini

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Iowa Hawkeyes
United States : NCAA Basketball Tournament Elite Eight
Saturday 28th March 2026 - Scheduled 6:09pm
10:09pm (British Time)

---

Preview

Both of these teams came through the Sweet 16 Round as upset winners, but there are clearly bigger expectations around the Illinois Fighting Illini compared with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

After results on Thursday, the Hawkeyes are the lowest Seed still left in the NCAA Tournament following another win over Conference rivals Nebraska in the Sweet 16 Round. After losing four of the previous five games, the Hawkeyes entered March Madness as Number 9 Seed, but have come through the last couple of Rounds as the underdog, including as a big underdog when upsetting defending Champions Florida Gators in the Second Round.

It is that win in particular that will give the Hawkeyes plenty of belief to take into the Elite Eight of the Tournament.

However, they are facing another stiff challenge in the form of the Illinois Fighting Illini who will have felt incredibly disrespected to have been placed as a Number 3 Seed. Performances over the course of the season suggested they should have been Ranked as potentially a Number 1 Seed and the Fighting Illini will feel they have made that point by beating one of the Number 2 Seeds in the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16 Round.

Most anticipated a competitive game, even if the Fighting Illini were down as the underdog, but Illinois have impressed.

Prior to the NCAA Tournament beginning, the feeling was the Illinois' Defensive schemes may ultimately be the undoing of the team and perhaps the main reason they were not Seeded higher than Number 3. That makes holding the Houston Cougars to 55 points in the Sweet 16 win all the more impressive and the Fighting Illini are expected to have too much for this 'Cinderella' Hawkeyes team.

The Hawkeyes will need to be respected having upset Florida, which is the highest Ranked win either team has produced in the Tournament. They have shown they can step up on both sides of the court when needed, but this Fighting Illini Offensive unit is the toughest they will have seen so far and that could be where the difference is made.

The reality is that the Hawkeyes will struggle to keep up with Illinois if the Number 3 Seed continues to play as well as they have on the Defensive side of the court. In an opening blowout win, Illinois allowed 70 points, but the last two opponents have both been restricted to 55 points.

Houston's Offensive level is superior to the one that Illinois will be facing on Saturday and that gives the higher Seed the edge.

Familiarity between these Conference rivals does change the narrative a little bit- back in January the Fighting Illini were 6 point winners on the road and they have continued the dominance of the Hawkeyes. Illinois have not only won five in a row against Iowa, but they have covered as a favourite in each of those recent meetings.

You have to expect the Hawkeyes to be well prepared for what they will be facing as they go up against another Conference rival, but Illinois will be doing the same and the Fighting Illini can continue to ride a hot Defensive unit to a win and cover.

Prediction

The Big Ten has played like the best Conference in College Basketball during the NCAA Tournament and they will have at least on representative in the Final Four.

Iowa have done really well to upset the odds and reach the Elite Eight, which will make them dangerous and confident.

However, you cannot ignore the fact that Illinois look to have put the pieces together on the Defensive side of the court and that makes them incredibly tough to beat when paired with an elite Offense.

The Pick :

Illinois Fighting Illini 74-64 Iowa Hawkeyes

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Illinois Fighting Illini - 6.5 Points at -115 with BetOnline