NBA Basketball BETTING PREVIEW - Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

NBA Basketball

2026-04-18 - Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
United States : NBA Basketball Playoffs First Round Game 1
Saturday 18th April 2026 - Scheduled 3:30pm EST
8:30pm (British Time)

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Preview

The last two seasons have ended in Western Conference Finals defeats, but it feels like the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to slip back a little this time around.

For the second season in a row they have earned the Number 6 Seed in the Western Conference, but a Series with the Denver Nuggets looks very challenging for the Timberwolves. In 2024, Minnesota did upset the then defending Champions 4-3 in the Western Conference Second Round Series, but it may surprise Nuggets fans if they are extended beyond a Game 6 in 2026.

That sounds disrespectful to a team that have reached back to back Conference Finals, but Minnesota have slipped from the level they produced twelve months ago, even slightly. In a competitive Conference, that slight slippage is enough to change the narrative all around a team, while Anthony Edwards has been banged up down the stretch.

The Timberwolves are going to need Edwards at close to full health if they are going to upset the odds in this Series, but they may take encouragement from the fact that the Denver Nuggets have had key role players missing significant time. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson provide a really strong support to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and both are going to be very important for the Nuggets if they are to have a deep run in the post-season.

Denver fans thought the team were about to embark on their own legacy creating run when winning the NBA Championship in 2023, but have suffered heartbreaking defeats in each of the last two seasons. Both have ended in the Western Conference Second Round with a Game 7 defeat, but the Nuggets enter the post-season with a twelve game winning run under their belts, which helped Denver secure the Number 3 Seed.

Doing so means avoiding the Oklahoma City Thunder until the Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are experienced enough to avoid looking beyond this First Round Series.

After winning that Western Conference Second Round Series in 2024, Minnesota had a very good record against the Denver Nuggets, but that has changed in the 2025/26 regular season. They have played four times in this regular season and while the Timberwolves won the last of those, Denver won the first three of those games and it will give a veteran group that much more belief in the match up.

In the last couple of weeks of the regular season, Minnesota were not playing with the same consistency as the Denver Nuggets and they will need their own experienced group to really step up on the Defensive side of the court. Recent games have seen the Timberwolves struggling Defensively and allowing opponents to have plenty of success from the field, although Minnesota will pride themselves of being able to get out and make things difficult for the three point shooters.

The real test not only in Game 1, but throughout this First Round Series is for the Minnesota Timberwolves to be able to impose themselves Offensively- they have been shooting the ball pretty well, but the Denver Nuggets have the size to dominate the boards and have been stopping opponents from picking up some momentum. The difference is that the Nuggets can be attacked from the three point range and so the Timberwolves have to find their rhythm quickly in this one.

A strong end to the regular season means the momentum is behind the Denver Nuggets and they can become the latest home team to open Game 1 of the First Round Series with a very good win.

You cannot ignore the recent match up between these teams, but Denver may have things figured out right now and the health of the roster gives them an opportunity to win and cover the spread in this opening game.

Prediction

Lay the points with the home favourite in Game 1 of this First Round Series.

The Pick :

Denver Nuggets 118-110 Minnesota Timberwolves

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Denver Nuggets - 6 Points at -110 with Bookmaker.eu