NBA Basketball BETTING PREVIEW - Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA Basketball

2026-05-22 - Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
United States : NBA Basketball Playoffs Western Conference Finals Game 3
Friday 22nd May 2026 - Scheduled 8:30pm EST
1:30am (British Time)

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Preview

They did what they needed to during a two game road business trip to Oklahoma City, but it has come at a cost for the San Antonio Spurs.

De'Aaron Fox was already missing and another primary ball-handler in Dylan Harper suffered an injury in the Third Quarter of Game 2, which ultimately tipped things in favour of the defending Champions. Turnovers killed the San Antonio Spurs with Stephon Castle being most guilty and they are going to be desperate to have at least one of Fox or Harper available for Game 3 as the Western Conference Finals shifts to San Antonio for the next two in the Series.

Every team needs players who can bring the ball up the court and create plays and San Antonio are no different- after the Double Overtime win in Game 1 behind a monster game from Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs best player was not as influential a factor in Game 2 and some of that is down to the inability of those outside of De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper being able to set the tempo with turning the ball over.

Turnovers have long been situations from which the Oklahoma City Thunder shine and most would have expected a big response from this group after losing Game 1.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander had a really efficient day from the field, even if his flopping on almost every shot taken is beginning to be noted more and more, while the intensity of the team meant they were not outgunned on the boards for a second time in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder were out-Rebounded in Game 2, but by a 4 board margin rather than the 21 more recoveries earned by the Spurs in Game 1.

It wasn't a perfect night for the Thunder, who may have lost Jalen Williams to another injury, while there have been plenty flagging up some of the physical, rough-housing the officials either missed or ignored against Victor Wembanyama.

On San Antonio's home court, those calls may end up trending in favour of the Spurs and it does make Game 3 that much more interesting for viewers.

In recent years, the Conference Finals have seen the zig-zag theory working really well with teams coming off losses producing strong numbers in the next game. The San Antonio Spurs will be hoping another day of recovery will help them here and you would expect De'Aaron Fox to suit up having been a game-time decision on Wednesday.

That will help, as will a few more positive calls from the officials, but this Oklahoma City Thunder deep have showcased the kind of depth they have.

Number 2 Seeds have been solid backs when favoured in Conference Finals games, while it should also be noted that Number 1 Seeds have not performed well as small favourites or underdogs, which is what the Oklahoma City Thunder have been set as in this important Game 3 battle.

Instead of picking a side, it may pay for this one to end up surpassing a total that has moved up a couple of points compared with Game 2.

That opening Double Overtime Game 1 has sapped some early energy and we saw signs of that in Game 2, while the officials may be more on top of some of the physicality we have seen where obvious fouls were not being called. Those have been highlighted nationally and it could be a Game 3 where whistles are more frequent, which in turn leads to drawn out Quarters as teams head to the Foul Line.

Three point shooting was more efficient in Game 2 as the Defensive players perhaps struggled to get out to those spot up shooters with tired legs recovering from the opening outing in the Western Conference Finals.

If that continues, this line may still be a touch low and it should be stated that Conference Finals games where the total has been set between 209 and 216 points have now finished with an 'over' in twenty-five of the last thirty-six occasions that has happened, including in Game 2 of this Series.

Turnovers lead to quick points too and the Spurs could be guilty of that again, but the home team are also showing they can break down this Oklahoma City Defensive scheme and this total may end up being surpassed in a Game 3 that really feels like it is finely balanced.

Prediction

This feels like a pivotal moment in the Series as two teams missing key players look to take a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Picking a winner is tough, but the hope is we get plenty more scoring.

The Pick :

San Antonio Spurs 111-108 Oklahoma City Thunder

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 216 Total Points at -110 with BetOnline