WORLD CUP BETTING PREVIEW - PORTUGAL VS CROATIA

World Cup

2026-07-02 - Portugal vs Croatia

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Portugal v Croatia
Football: World Cup Last 32
Thursday 2nd July 2026 - Kick Off 7pm (EST)
British Time Midnight

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Portugal

This is a nation that won Euro 2016 after playing seven tournament games and winning just once in normal time and so Portugal fans will not be concerned about the manner of progression right now. The side made it through the Group Stage unbeaten and with a single goal conceded, but there remains a feeling that Portugal will need to do more if they are going to win the World Cup for the first time.

They actually finished behind Colombia and there will be some concerns about the performance in the final game of the Group against the South American nation with top spot on the line. Finishing top of the Group would have given Portugal a much more comfortable passage to work through to the latter stages of the Knock Out Rounds, but instead Roberto Martinez will be under pressure right from the opening match in the Last 32.

Portugal are the defending Nations League Champions and there is a big expectation around this squad that has plenty of talent, although the criticism is the continue deployment of Cristiano Ronaldo from the start. Five goals were scored against Uzbekistan, but Portugal scored just once against DR Congo and Colombia combined, although that was enough to extend the unbeaten run to 8 games.

The squad looks as healthy as can be hoped through the opening three matches at the 2026 World Cup and manager Roberto Martinez may not make too many changes to the expected starting eleven.

Predicted Line Up Costa, Cancelo, Mendes, Dias, Veiga, Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes, Neto, Joao Felix and Ronaldo (4-2-3-1)

Croatia

There were still a couple of Groups that would have to play after Croatia's final fixture last Saturday, but it was already clear that a draw would be enough to edge through as at least one of the best third place finishers. Little margin for error meant Croatia had to chase the win, but the late goal that helped them beat Ghana 2-1 means finishing 2nd rather than going through as one of the 3rd placed teams.

It is a goal that does change the outlook for Croatia- instead of facing Colombia and then the winner of the Last 32 tie between Switzerland and Algeria, the 2018 World Cup Runners Up have to face Portugal in the Last 32 and then the winner of Spain or Austria. Suffice to say it is going to be hugely challenging for this experienced Group to match the runs of the 2018 and 2022 squads that both at least reached the Semi Final on the world stage.

Croatia lost friendly games to Brazil and Belgium and were well beaten by England in the opening match here, but the back to back wins over Panama and Ghana have maintained some confidence. This is a team that will also point to the 2-1 win over Colombia in an international friendly game in March, but it is noted that Croatia have won and lost half of the last 6 fixtures played.

Rotating the squad is not a surprise when you think of some of the age of the players Zlatko Dalic is still relying upon, but this is Knock Out Football and risks have to be limited.

Predicted Line Up: Livakovic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Stanisic, Perisic, Kovacic, Modric, Sucic, Buturina and Musa (3-4-2-1)

Head to Head

These two met in the Nations League Group Stage in the Autumn of 2024 and it was Portugal who took four points from the two matches thanks to a narrow 2-1 win at home and a 1-1 draw away.

Earlier that year in one of the warm up friendly matches ahead of Euro 2024, Croatia beat Portugal 2-1.

That is now the sole Croatia win in 10 previous matches against Portugal, although they have only been beaten in 1 of the last 3.

Prediction

Ageing stars are going to be on the pitch for both Portugal and Croatia in this Last 32 tie as both teams came out of World Cup Groups as Runners Up behind Colombia and England respectively.

Out of the two teams, Portugal perhaps underachieved more than Croatia, but they will feel they have the superior talent and a bit more depth to make changes if the tie is not going the way they want.

Roberto Martinez has been hesitant to remove Cristiano Ronaldo though and there continues to be a feeling that that inability to make a big decision is holding Portugal back. Thumping Uzbekistan is one thing, but scoring once in two matches against DR Congo and Colombia is another and Portugal have far from impressed in the final third.

It is a benefit they are facing an opponent with a number of ageing players that are still being used in the starting eleven and Croatia have looked way short of the teams that reached the World Cup Final eight years ago and the Semi Final in Qatar four years ago.

The latter tournament saw Croatia use their experience, and some fortune, to work their way through the Knock Out Stage before Argentina had far too much and there is a feeling that they will be found out sooner than later. Experience is important, but Croatia have struggled defensively in all three games, while they have not shown enough conviction in the final third.

Portugal are rightly favoured, but it should be said they are a short price for a team that have become used to drawing matches in tournament football.

2 of the 3 matches at this tournament have ended that way and both Knock Out ties played at the Euro 2024 Finals also needed Extra Time and then Penalties.

There is little doubt that Portugal will feel they are the better team in this match and they will create chances, but it has not always been convincing from this team and the value here is for Extra Time to be needed to separate two nations that are well versed in needing those minutes in Knock Out ties at major international tournaments.

The Pick :

Portugal 1-1 Croatia

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Draw at 3.65 with SportBet.One