WORLD CUP BETTING PREVIEW - MEXICO VS ENGLAND

World Cup

2026-07-05 - Mexico vs England

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Mexico v England
Football: World Cup Last 16
Sunday 5th July 2026 - Kick Off 6pm (CST)
British Time 1am

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Mexico

The previous two times Mexico have hosted the World Cup have both ended with a run to the Quarter Final of the tournament in 1970 and 1986- the win over Ecuador in the Last 32 also means Mexico won a Knock Out tie in the World Cup Finals for the first time in forty years. All of this will offer Mexico a huge amount of encouragement, but the level of opposition will be lifted significantly in the Last 16 of the 2026 World Cup.

They came through Group A without any issues as Mexico won all three matches against South Africa, South Korea and Czechia and the team managed to keep clean sheets in each of those wins. Once again a clean sheet formed the foundation for success in the 2-0 win over Ecuador and it was two relatively early goals that allowed Mexico to coast through the remainder of the fixture and set up this big tie at the Azteca Stadium in what is the last game to be featured in Mexico in this tournament.

Mexico earned a couple of international friendly draws against European opposition in March when holding Portugal and Belgium, but they have won all 7 games played since then and conceded just once. That makes it 10 wins in 12 games overall, while plenty will be talking about the fact that Mexico have lost just TWO competitive fixtures at the Azteca since the opening of this famous Stadium.

The squad looks in good shape after the win over Ecuador and Javier Aguirre may not be thinking about rotating too many players.

Predicted Line Up : Rangel, Sanchez, Gallardo, Montes, Vasquez, Lira, Gutierrez, Romo, Alvarado, Quinones and Jimenez (4-3-3)

England

There were aspects of the England performance against DR Congo which will really worry the fans, but they were the better team by some distance when all was said and done. Thomas Tuchel will have some big decisions to make about his wide players and perhaps at right back, but this is a squad game these days and the substitutes made the kind of impact that the manager would have been looking for.

It was quite remarkable to note that England had only ever come from behind to win a single Knock Out tie in the World Cup setting and that was the famous 1966 Final against West Germany. The record has now been reset with England coming from behind to beat DR Congo in the Last 32 and that follows topping the Group earlier in the tournament following wins over Croatia and Panama and a draw with Ghana.

England have not played a lot of top level competitive football since the Euro 2024 Final defeat to Spain two years ago, but they have reserved their best results for that setting rather than international friendly matches. The side have won 5 of the last 6 games since losing to Japan in the March friendly window.

Reece James is hoping to be available for any Quarter Final that England may reach, but he is not expected to be involved this Sunday. Jarell Quansah is closer, but may not be fit enough to start, while Declan Rice is clearly playing through the pain for his country. After the attacking subs made a big impact against DR Congo, Thomas Tuchel could make changes again.

Predicted Line Up: Pickford, Spence, O'Reilly, Konza, Guehi, Rice, Anderson, Bellingham, Saka, Gordon and Kane (4-2-3-1)

Head to Head

England have won the last 4 meetings with Mexico, but all have been in friendly settings and 3 of those have been played at home with one being a victory in the United States.

A year before both the 1970 and 1986 World Cup Finals, England travelled to the Azteca Stadium to play friendly matches and left with a goalless draw and a 1-0 defeat respectively.

Prediction

There has already been some controversy around this Last 16 tie which had been reportedly moved forward six hours on Friday evening, but only for FIFA to later change their mind.

Even at the time of writing, there are ongoing discussions about what should happen with a fixture that is scheduled for 6pm local time when all of the forecasts are calling for thunderstorms. The tournament directive has been to delay matches in such a case and there is still a chance that this fixture is played at a different time than the one currently scheduled, so that is something to keep an eye on.

It is another challenge for one of the favourites to win the World Cup as England have already travelled to Mexico City where they face the daunting task of winning in the Azteca Stadium.

Mexico have only lost twice here competitively and the last time was all the way back in 2013, while the squad have embraced the chance to play as co-hosts of this 2026 World Cup. All of the matches have been hosted at home and Mexico have shown their familiarity with the conditions to win all four matches without conceding a goal.

Altitude has been the talk of the town in the build up to the game and it is going to be a big challenge for England- they have played two friendly games here previously in 1969 and 1985 and failed to score a goal.

Forty years ago England were famously dumped out of the World Cup in this Stadium when Diego Maradona scored one of the best goals in the tournament history and also produced the 'Hand of God' to help Argentina edge out England.

So there are a lot of challenges for England, but big players have been stepping up for them in key moments in this World Cup and that may be the case again.

Thomas Tuchel's team have not really impressed fully or put in a complete performance, but they have shown a real threat in the final third when they get things right and that has seen England create big chances. You could argue that they have not faced a team as good as Mexico and especially not with the conditions around this fixture, but at the same time, there is considerable pressure on the co-hosts.

Mexico have hosted the tournament twice before and reached the Quarter Final both times, but they had lost eight consecutive Knock Out ties before beating Ecuador in the Last 32. They overwhelmed a team that had perhaps run out of emotional energy after scraping through the Group, but that is not likely to be the case with England.

For all the successes in the tournament, it should be said that Mexico have not really beaten a team of note- they were second best against South Korea and grateful for a goalkeeper mistake in that one, while wins over South Africa, Czechia and Ecuador are decent at best.

Mexico have only been beaten TWICE at this Stadium in competitive football, but it is hard to ignore the fact that they simply do not host that many quality opponents here. The World Cup record at the Azteca Stadium for Mexico is impressive, but even those opponents have been very mixed and England may be the best team they have seen in a competitive fixture for a long time.

Nothing will be easy here, but England are capable of coming through the early storm, on and off the pitch, and eventually showcasing the talent that has some of the squad playing for the biggest clubs in the world.

The Pick :

Mexico 0-1 England

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back England to Qualify at 1.72 with BetFred