WORLD CUP BETTING PREVIEW - PORTUGAL VS SPAIN

World Cup

2026-07-06 - Portugal vs Spain

A Sports Betting Preview by Auls

Portugal v Spain
Football: World Cup Last 16
Monday 6th July 2026 - Kick Off 2pm (CST)
British Time 8pm

---

Portugal

Controversy surrounded Portugal's win over Croatia and they were certainly the beneficiaries of VAR interventions that have largely been missing at the 2026 World Cup. It does mean Cristiano Ronaldo's international career moves onto another game, but Portugal have to find a way to lift the level if they are going to continue on the path towards a first ever World Cup success.

After a pretty quiet first half, Portugal were put under the cosh by Croatia in the second half of the Last 16 tie and it felt like they were second best. This is not the first time that felt like the case in this tournament after Portugal had been outplayed by Colombia in the Group, but they managed to find a way past Croatia and you have to be 'in it to win it'.

Portugal's injury time winner over Croatia has extended the unbeaten run to 9 games and they have won 6 of those matches, while this is a team that won the last Nations League. There has to be an improvement in the final third at both ends of the pitch if Portugal are going to get through this Last 16 tie.

Roberto Martinez made the big call to finally take Cristian Ronaldo off as his Portugal team were drawing with Croatia and he will have been prepared to face the criticism if the side had been Knocked Out. Instead they have moved through and Martinez will have big decisions to make about the first team selection.

Predicted Line Up: Costa, Cancelo, Mendes, Dias, Veiga, Joao Neves, Vitinha, Fernandes, Neto, Leao and Ronaldo (4-3-3)

Spain

The defending European Champions have not hit the peak of their performances just yet and that has to be seen as a positive for Spain as they have still made relatively comfortable work of reaching the Last 16 of the World Cup again. The last two World Cup runs have ended in this Round, which is a big disappointment, and Spain are going to have to improve again to avoid that fate once more.

Four matches at the World Cup have all ended with clean sheets, while Spain's comfortable win over Austria means they have won the last 3 of those matches. However, beating the aforementioned Austrians, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, while being held to a draw against Cape Verde, means most of Spain will appreciate that this Last 16 tie is considerably tougher on paper compared with previous opponents.

Spain have extended a long unbeaten run that has spanned over two years, at least in regulation time, and that will give them confidence. While not impressing as much as some of the other attacking teams in this tournament, Spain have shown a really good balance in the football played and that will keep them at the top of most lists as potential World Cup Winners.

Both Yeremy Pino and Nico Williams are set to miss out and that may mean Luis de la Fuente continues with the same eleven that started the win over Austria.

Predicted Line Up: Simon, Porro, Cucurella, Cubarsi, Laporte, Rodri, Pedri, Olmo, Yamal, Baena and Ozaryabel (4-3-3)

Head to Head

The last Nations League Final in June 2025 was played between Portugal and Spain and the former won on Penalties after fighting back twice in a 2-2 draw in normal time.

However, that result means Portugal have not beaten Spain in any of the last 7 matches between the Iberian neighbours, although 6 have ended in draws.

Prediction

This looks the standout tie of the Last 16 Round at the 2026 World Cup and both Portugal and Spain will feel they have enough attacking talent to earn the edge in the contest.

However, it should be said that neither have played at their very best in the tournament to date and that makes it that much tougher to predict.

Spain have been missing the directness of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal is going to struggle to get much out of Nuno Mendes, but the European Champions have also looked much more composed defensively compared with their Iberian neighbours.

Roberto Martinez made big decisions to help Portugal over the line against Croatia, but this is a team that has been second best in their two toughest games in the tournament so far. VAR calls really helped Portugal out against Croatia, while they were outplayed for large parts of the goalless draw with Colombia and the manager has to help his team find another level.

Individual talent will always make Portugal dangerous and games between these nations have tended to be very competitive with the familiarity they have of one another.

There is no doubt that Portugal are dangerous and 6 of the last 7 between the nations ending in draws is very difficult to ignore- that includes the Nations League Final last year that ended 2-2 in normal time before Portugal eventually prevailed on Penalties.

Out of the two teams, Portugal are likely going to be the more comfortable trying to contain the other.

Spain may have impressed more defensively, but the natural state of this team is to get forward and attack, while Portugal have been vulnerable at the back, but will lean on that defence where they must.

The draw is a genuine runner, much as it was in Portugal's Last 32 tie that was decided in injury time.

Late goals have been a feature of the tournament and with that in mind the narrow edge has to be given to Spain to find a way.

Portugal have allowed Colombia and Croatia to rack up the shots and so backing Spain to Qualify in a match where they have least four more shots on target looks an interesting approach to take.

The Pick :

Portugal 1-2 Spain

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Spain to Qualify & Spain Over 3.5 Shots on Target (Bet Builder) at 1.75 with Bet365