MLB Baseball BETTING PREVIEW - Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres

MLB Baseball

2026-07-12 - Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
United States : Major League Baseball
Sunday 12th July 2026 - Scheduled 4:10pm EST
9:10pm (British Time)

---

Preview

There were big expectations around the Toronto Blue Jays (45-50) going into the 2026 season having been an Out or two away from winning the World Series year. Instead it has been a grind for the Blue Jays, who are 12 games out of the lead in the American League East, and they will be desperate to conclude this 'half' of the regular season with a victory.

The first two games of this inter-League series have been split, while the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be firmly in the mix for the Wild Card spots in the American League.

They are facing the San Diego Padres (47-48), a team struggling for consistency, and one that is being put under pressure in the National League with a 4.5 game gap to bridge to the Wild Card spots. With the investment made by the team, San Diego need to find some consistency over the coming weeks and winning this series may offer them something to build upon.

The Padres will hand the ball to German Marquez who has a 4-2 record and 5.02 ERA in eight appearances for San Diego and seven of those have been in starts. He had spent his entire career with National League West rivals Colorado Rockies before Marquez signed a one year deal with San Diego and you do have to wonder if the pitcher is one that the team will be taking trade calls about.

German Marquez missed a month of action before returning earlier this month and coming out of the bullpen to finish a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Most recently Marquez completed 5 Innings in a start against the Arizona Diamondbacks and keeping them scoreless helped him earn the decision win.

Back in 2019, German Marquez threw 7 Innings against the Toronto Blue Jays and held them to two runs and earned the decision win as a member of the Colorado Rockies.

The Blue Jays will counter by handing the ball to Kevin Gausman, but this is a pitcher that has been the subject of trade rumours with the team struggling and his contract winding down at the end of the season. Kevin Gausman does have a 4-8 record and 4.32 ERA in nineteen starts in 2026, but the ERA is on track to be the worst since 2019 and the pitcher has not always looked that happy.

It has been a difficult six weeks for Kevin Gausman who has a 0-5 record and 6.51 ERA in his last seven starts for Toronto, while he has given up at least four earned runs in three of the last four. In the main he has still been able to chew through the Innings, but there is room for improvement if Gausman is going to be retained and the Blue Jays are to be able to push closer to the Wild Card spots.

Last season Kevin Gausman threw 7 Innings against the San Diego Padres without giving up a run.

Prediction

Both of these pitchers can produce better than what they have in recent outings, but there is a concern for both German Marquez and Kevin Gausman after seeing the San Diego and Toronto batters put up strong numbers on Saturday.

The total line looks a touch low with that in mind and the teams can do enough to cover the number set.

The Pick :

San Diego Padres 4-5 Toronto Blue Jays

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Over 8.5 Total Runs at -120 with Bovada