NCAA Football BETTING PREVIEW - New Mexico State @ Florida State Seminoles

NCAA Football

2026-08-29 - New Mexico State at Florida State Seminoles

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

New Mexico State Aggies @ Florida State Seminoles
United States : College Football Week 0
Saturday 29th August 2026 - Scheduled 7pm EST
Midnight (British Time)

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Preview

The end of the 2023 season will always sting those associated with the Florida State Seminoles and seeing rivals Miami Hurricanes reach the National Championship Game last year may only have added to the frustration that lingers around the Head Coach.

The last couple of years have been difficult and the Seminoles have a 7-17 record, which means Mike Norvell cannot hope that the feel-good factor of the 2023 season can keep him in charge of the Seminoles if they are not able to produce a much stronger season all around in 2026.

It also means four of the six seasons played under Mike Norvell have ended with a losing record and there is going to be little patience with the Head Coach if the Florida State Seminoles cannot build momentum into this season.

The Seminoles are big favourites opening up against the New Mexico State Aggies, but they move into prove it games very quickly with the SMU Mustangs and Alabama Crimson Tide on deck. The ACC has been a pretty open Conference, but the Seminoles will need transfer Ashton Daniels to finally feel settled in the Quarter Back position having bounced from Stanford to Auburn before arriving in Tallahassee.

Florida State fans will be questioning the standard of the roster after preseason predictions were made and the Seminoles are not expected to be one of the stronger teams in the Conference. This will not be good news for the Head Coach, but this opening game gives Florida State an opportunity to come out and make an immediate statement about what they can achieve.

Back to back losing records means there is work to do with the New Mexico State Aggies, but there is not a great deal of expectation that they will show huge improvements in 2026.

Just seven wins have been secured in the first two seasons under the current Head Coach Tony Sanchez, although he is likely to be given time to turn things around even if a winning record cannot be achieved over the next few months.

Last year, the one major school faced saw the Aggies blown out mid-season by the Tennessee Volunteers, and in 2026 they are going to be starting this season with a Quarter Back who is moving up from the FCS level, which can be challenging too.

The 22 Interceptions in the last couple of seasons suggests Trey Hedden could have to go through a quick learning curve at this level and Florida State may be able to create one or two short fields to really begin to pull away.

No one associated with the Seminoles is going to be looking back at 2025 with any fondness, but it should be noted that the team were able to produce two massive wins when facing lower level opponents. One was against a FCS opponent, but Florida State also crushed Kent State from the MAC and there is every reason to believe they can win in Week 0 very comfortably before heading into much tougher contests over the weeks and months ahead.

Prediction

Lay the points with the home favourite.

The Pick :

Florida State Seminoles 44-10 New Mexico State

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Florida State Seminoles - 31 Points at -115 with Bovada