Tennis BETTING PREVIEW - Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

Tennis

2026-09-10 - Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

#1 Aryna Sabalenka vs #3 Jessica Pegula
United States : US Open Tennis Semi Final
Thursday 10th September 2026 - Scheduled 7pm EST
12am (British Time)

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Preview

Both of these Semi Finalists are going to feel they showed plenty of character to come through awkward moments in the Quarter Final and that should give them confidence as the US Open begins to reach its climax.

The top Seed in the draw has officially lost the World Number 1 Ranking, but Aryna Sabalenka likely made peace with that happening considering how the Ranking Points were shaking out. Instead the only focus for the Belarusian is winning a Grand Slam title in 2026 and she will simply be glad to still be involved in New York City after the narrow win in the Quarter Final.

To be fair to Aryna Sabalenka, she had been the better player in the match against Linda Noskova, but the two time defending US Open Champion did not play the big points as well as she would have liked, at least not until the final set tie-breaker. The Noskova serve made a big impact at the big moments, but Aryna Sabalenka will be aware that her opponent in this Semi Final is not going to serve as big as the Wimbledon Champion.

Another year looked to be passing Jessica Pegula by as she trailed in the US Open Quarter Final and her hopes of winning a first Grand Slam would have faded a little more.

Before it was too late, Pegula started to find some of her best tennis, but she will be the first to admit that the last three Rounds have not been good enough from a serving perspective. Jessica Pegula is a very good return player, which has made up for the serving problems, but she cannot hope to get away with such a drop in standard against someone who serves as well as Aryna Sabalenka does.

There is also the mental obstacle of having been beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in the last two years at the US Open.

Those losses have been in the 2024 Final and the 2025 Semi Final and Jessica Pegula will believe that she should have the last of those matches. However, she ultimately did come up short and has now lost five of the last six hard court matches between these players since August 2024.

The last three of those matches have needed a third set decider, while Jessica Pegula beat Aryna Sabalenka on the grass courts of Berlin in the sole match played between these top WTA players in 2026.

It is a win that will give her confidence, but Jessica Pegula is going to have to dig in and find another level if she is going to beat Aryna Sabalenka on this court.

The service numbers have fallen away dramatically in the last three Rounds and it is very difficult to see how Jessica Pegula can find her way into another US Open Final without improving that part of her game dramatically. That feels unlikely right now and Aryna Sabalenka can take advantage of that to tip the scales in her favour in this big match.

No one can say that Aryna Sabalenka has fully convinced at the US Open having had a difficult year overall, but she is playing at a superior level compared with Jessica Pegula. Those back to back US Open wins over the World Number 3 will also give the top Seed that much more belief in the tighter moments of this Semi Final and that may end up being a key reason for Aryna Sabalenka to reach yet another Final at this Grand Slam.

Prediction

The two time defending Champion will not be the World Number 1 on Monday morning, but Aryna Sabalenka can get to this weekend with a chance to win the US Open for a third time in a row.

The Pick :

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 Jessica Pegula

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games at 1.80 with Cloudbet