NFL Football BETTING PREVIEW - Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins

NFL Football

2026-09-27 - Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

A Sports Betting Preview by FirstDown

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins
United States : NFL Week 3
Sunday 27th September 2026 - Scheduled 1pm EST
6pm (British Time)

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Preview

All eyes were on Patrick Mahomes as he returned to action in Week 1 following a serious injury at the end of the 2025 season,

184 passing yards with a couple of Touchdowns and an Interception would not have impressed, but the Quarter Back led the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) to a win and has followed up by dissecting the Indianapolis Colts to keep his team unbeaten. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards in the Week 2 win over the Colts and added 3 Touchdowns without throwing an Interception and Kansas City did what they had to do to remain unbeaten and looking like one of the real contenders to bounce back and earn a Playoff spot the season after missing out completely.

An early Bye Week is coming up for the Kansas City Chiefs who have opened the 2026 season with two home wins, but now have to play back to back games on the road.

Overlooking the Miami Dolphins (0-2) after coming through an Overtime victory may be the biggest obstacle for the Kansas City Chiefs to overcome- they do have to play the surprising Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 4 who are a Divisional rival and one that is also sitting at 2-0. That can be a problem for teams, even this early in the season, but it feels like something drastic will have had to change for both the Chiefs and Dolphins for this to be anything other than a road win.

The layers feel the same with the Chiefs being asked to lay a lot of points on the road, but it cannot be a surprise considering Miami have lost both games by double digits and have looked every bit as bad a team as many anticipated they would be.

The Dolphins have shifted some of the big contracts, but that has meant having to deal with dead money on the salary cap and also a change in philosophy with a young group being asked to try and lift the fanbase. In reality Miami will be targeting a very high selection in the next NFL Draft and the early performances suggest they could be the prime contender to pick up the Number 1 selection.

Malik Willis has been signed to play Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line have really had a hard time making any plays for Willis or for Running Back De'Von Achane and that has made it very tough for the Dolphins all around. Running the ball would have been the main ambition for the Dolphins as they look to make use of the best Offensive player left on the roster, but the Offensive Line have not had much success early and now face a Chiefs Defensive Line that have opened 2026 looking strong up front.

Playing from behind the chains has made things tough for Malik Willis, but it also should be said that he does not have the best supporting cast in the skill positions. This has perhaps been part of the reason Willis has been holding onto the ball longer than would be expected and that has led to the Sacks piling up and the Miami Dolphins showing very little consistency when it comes to moving the chains.

The heat of South Florida can be a leveller and that may help the Dolphins if the pass rush is slowed by increasing fatigue, but it is perhaps asking a lot of this Miami team to pile up enough points to earn the upset, despite the number of those already seen in the NFL.

It will be that much tougher to score enough points if the Kansas City Chiefs pick up from where they left off in Week 2 as a balanced Offensive unit takes to the field.

Kenneth Walker III earned the Super Bowl MVP before leaving Seattle to sign with the Chiefs and he has been part of a team that have been rushing for 5.6 yards per carry early in the season. Two games is a small sample, but the Chiefs are making use of having a Running Back that teams will respect and especially one playing behind a Quarter Back like Patrick Mahomes.

The Quarter Back is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and he will be pretty happy with the early season form shown by the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking. Patrick Mahomes is facing a Miami team that have struggled to get any pressure up front, which has exposed the inexperienced Secondary, and you have to believe Kansas City will be able to do what they like when they do have the ball.

The Chiefs beat Miami twice in the 2023 season, including in the Playoffs, while they also won on their last trip to Miami back in December 2020.

Laying this kind of number with a road favourite is never a great position to be in, but Miami could be a team that struggles to win more than once this season and the Kansas City Chiefs have the momentum that could see them pull clear in the second half.

Prediction

Lay the points with the road favourite as the NFL moves into Week 3 of the 2026 season.

The Pick :

Miami Dolphins 17-31 Kansas City Chiefs

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back Kansas City Chiefs - 10 Points at -110 with Bovada