MLB Baseball

2025-10-07 - Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
United States : MLB Baseball Playoff Divisional Series Game 3
Tuesday 7th October 2025 - Scheduled 8:08pm
1:08am (British Time)

Preview

The first two Games of this Divisional Round Series have made for remarkable viewing- the most optimistic Toronto Blue Jays fans and the most negative of New York Yankees fans would probably be surprised by how things have developed.

Some people are concerned that the teams receiving a Bye through to the Divisional Round can be out of rhythm when facing a team that has come through a Wild Card Series, but there is no doubting how the Blue Jays have been feeling.

The bats have been firing in the two home wins over the Yankees with twenty-nine Hits being produced and that leading to twenty-three runs. Eight Home Runs have rocked the Yankees to the core and the Toronto Blue Jays will not want to return home without a place in the American League Championship Series secured.

Manager Aaron Boone and the Yankees squad are not panicking, but they have been hit hard and often so far in this Series, while the much talked about batting lineup have not been able to produce the big Hits when the team have needed them. They did score seven runs in the loss in Game 2, but the majority of those came once the game was out of hand and there is a lot of pressure on the home team when they return to The Bronx.

Carlos Rodon will be given the ball and he has already thrown 6 Playoff Innings this post-season when giving up three runs to the Boston Red Sox. There is no doubting the confidence of the pitcher, but he did allow four earned runs in 10 Innings thrown against the Blue Jays this season, although both were in games played in Canada.

The starter has a 2.98 ERA in fifteen home starts this season for the New York Yankees, which will give Rodon more belief, but he will also be well aware that he is facing a batting lineup that are seeing the baseball like a basketball right now.

The Blue Jays will have been really pleased with the work of the two starters in the games played this past weekend, especially Trey Yesavage. The rookie bamboozled the Yankees batting lineup and now Toronto will hand the ball to Shane Bieber, who was surprisingly acquired in a trade from the Cleveland Guardians ahead of the deadline.

Injury issues have slowed what looked to be a really promising career, and Shane Bieber made just two starts in 2024 before heading off for Tommy John Surgery. The surprise in the trade is that the Guardians looked to be building him up for a return to their own starting rotation having signed Bieber up for a one year contract.

Shane Bieber has made seven starts for the Toronto Blue Jays and he has a 4-2 record with a 3.57 ERA, while his previous Playoff experiences include throwing almost 6 completed Innings and holding the New York Yankees to two runs in this ballpark.

In five starts in September, Shane Bieber had a 3-1 record with a 4.03 ERA and so there is a feeling that the Blue Jays will have him on something of a short leash in this one.

Prediction

The prices are always going to be in favour of a powerhouse like the New York Yankees, but the Toronto Blue Jays have shown they continue to be underestimated against this American League East rival.

Blowout wins in both home games has put Toronto on the brink of returning to the American League Championship Series for the first time in almost a decade and they will be heading to The Bronx full of confidence.

The batting lineup are not going to be concerned about facing Carlos Rodon and all of the pressure is on the New York Yankees.

However, Shane Bieber will still have something to prove as he continues his return from Tommy John Surgery.

He finished September with a 4.03 ERA and the Yankees fans may take something out of the late rally put together in Game 2, even though they never threatened to really get back into the contest.

Shane Bieber has a 4.11 ERA against the New York Yankees in his career and so the narrow lean is with a home win, although this could be a game where the bullpens are both used heavily, which could lead to a high-scoring game.

Backing at least eight runs to be scored looks the right play with both batting lineups capable of lighting up the scoreboard to cover the line on their own.

It was a prop bet used for Game 2, but a more traditional market will be attacked for Game 3.

However, those chasing bigger prices may think about backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr to continue his hot hitting.

He has played six times at Yankees Stadium in 2025 and produced a couple of Home Runs, which will worry the home fans considering what Guerrero Jr was doing at home this past weekend. His batting average is .455 in those games in this Stadium and he is odds against to pick up at least two bases.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr has picked up at least two bases in his last three appearances in this ballpark, and he is also 10-17 when it comes to facing Carlos Rodon. Backing another Home Run (6.00) will intrigue some, but the batter picking up at least two bases is 2.30 and looks a decent price.

You could double that up with Aaron Judge doing the same- the batting leader in the regular season has yet to have a big moment in the post-season, and is 0-7 against Shane Bieber, but Aaron Judge has picked up at least two bases in four of the five Playoff Games played this season.

One Home Run would do the job, but that is plenty short and is priced on Aaron Judge's reputation rather than form.

Backing both Guerrero Jr and Judge to pick up two bases is 4.20 at Bet365 and that looks a decent way to keep an interest in the game for those preferring a higher priced bet.