NCAA Football
2010-09-04 - Memphis Tigers at Mississippi State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : United States : NCAA Football
Saturday, September 4th, 2010 7:00PM US
(12:00AM GMT)
Memphis Tigers
Memphis is a 22 point underdog here and I feel they will stick around with Mississippi through this one.
Memphis ended last season on a very bad note, going 0-6 and only covering the spread on 1 of those games. I think this was down to the psychology of the team, rather than the talent.
Indeed, the talent in the Memphis set up allowed them to make it to bowl games at the end of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. So why the drop at the end of last season? Because just before the slump, the team got the news that the coaching staff would be leaving at the end of the season.
Tommy West and the rest of the staff left, with Memphis hardly in the mood to play after hearing this news, and it affected the performances and results big time. Over the break, a new staff has been put in place, and I feel spirits will be raised again, allowing for a better performance, especially in the 1st game of the new season.
The new head coach is Larry Porter, who was the RB for Memphis back in the early 90s. He rushed for almost 2200 in his college career and has more recently been a scout and recruiter at LSU. He's capable of getting good players into the team, and more importantly getting them fired up.
Another addition is the Southern Miss Defensive Coach, Jay Hopson, who actually played for Ole Miss! He’s sure to get the defense fired up again and there has been talk coming out of the defense unit that the man lives and breathes the game, and his attitude is infectious. "11 brothers" is what he apparently makes them scream when breaking the huddle. He'll have these kids going to war for each other.
On offense, the whole team returns, so there is experience, and new enthusiasm, which will help the new QB Cannon Smith, who is almost 23 and has just transferred back from Miami.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
So, Memphis are fresh, have all the new additions, and are totally focused on this first game of the season. What about Mississippi State?
Well, I think their minds will be elsewhere. You see, after this game, on a Saturday, they have a short week where they entertain the mighty Auburn at home in front of the nation on live TV. It's the first big SEC match and they will be thinking only of that.
Well, that and the trip to LSU the next match. And then having Georgia visit them the following match. You see where I’m going with this? Coach Dan Mullen is going to be thinking only of getting through this match without a loss, and without any injuries. He has no interest in busting his boys hump, nor running up the score to cover the spread.
Mississippi State will probably have to work hard to get well ahead anyway. The team isn’t exactly crammed with attacking talent and RB Anthony Dixon no longer in the team. The offense isn't the most powerful and they are not know to be capable of quick strikes.
I expect the Bulldogs to work work the clock and try and finish this as early as possible to give the players the rest they need before the big one against Auburn.
THE BETTING VERDICT
There isn't a heaven and hell difference between these two. Instead, the motivation for Memphis will be way way higher than that of Mississippi State.
The spread is just too much, and I expect a backdoor cover or more likely, Memphis to fight and keep this one within the number all the way through.
