Europa League
2011-08-18 - Nacional vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : European Europa League
Thursday 18 August 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm (BST)
Nacional
Nacional had a decent season last year in Portugal and have been fortunate enough to retain much of the spine from that team while also adding to the squad. This all means that the fans expectations for another decent year have been raised and that expectation includes reaching the next stage of the Europa League.
Nacional started their Europa League campaign around 6 weeks ago and they have already had to come through 2 Rounds against FH and Hacken. On both occasions, the Portuguese team won their home games without conceding a goal and they will know that they need a result here after failing to win either away game.
In fact Nacional have failed to win any of their last 8 away games in this competition stretching back over the last 7 seasons, so it remains clear that winning at home will be the key to moving forward in this years tournament.
The team finished with a 7-4-4 home record last season, but shockingly only scored 14 goals in those games while conceding 12. Only 2 teams finished with a better defensive record at home, but Nacional were also one of the lowest home scorers in the League.
Luis Alberto has returned from his European suspension and should line up in the engine room of the midfield. It is expected that this side will make very few changes, if any at all, from the team that started the last weekend in the League.
Birmingham City
Birmingham City will be participating in this competition thanks to their Carling Cup win in February in what was ultimately a disappointing campaign that saw the team relegated. That means promotion is the expectation this season, although they will still want to do well in the Europa League if possible according to the management team.
Chris Hughton took over from Alex McCleish in the Summer after the latter accepted a job offer from Aston Villa, but that has not been the only change at St Andrews. The likes of Barry Ferguson, Craig Gardner, Roger Johnson and Ben Foster have actually left the club leaving a much changed side to compete this season.
Birmingham have picked up 1 win and 1 loss from the opening 2 games of their Championship season, but already have a game in hand thanks to participating in the Europa League. They had a poor 2-7-10 away record in the Premier League last season, scoring 18 goals and conceding 36.
The potential backlog of games that will happen for Birmingham while they are in the Europa League means they are likely to employ the full use of their squad in some of these games. Jordan Mutch, Cameron Jerome, Nikola Zigic and Marlon King are all missing tonight and it is clear that Birmingham's aim is to make sure they are still in a tie when they return to St Andrews next week.
Prediction
Once again, I think the foreign team may have been underestimated by the British layers and I think Nacional have a very good chance of coming to England next week with a slight lead in the tie.
The lack of goals for the home side is a little hard to take in, but I think 1 may be enough tonight against a Birmingham team that is much changed from last season and with other things as the priority, for example promotion.
Nacional will be very proactive looking to take a lead to England considering their away form in the Europa League, and I think they will be able to do so although it could be touch and go.
I can't imagine there will be too many goals scored, but the Unders has been priced up accordingly, and I do like the price on the home win.
The Pick :
Nacional 1-0 Birmingham City
