NCAA Football
2011-09-17 - Nevada Wolfpack at San Jose State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 3
Saturday 17 September 2011 - Kick Off 4pm ET
9pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two teams have had a disappointing start to the new season and will be hoping their first game in the Western Athletic Conference will be an upturn of fortunes. The San Jose State Spartans (0-2) will be looking to use their home advantage to full effect against the Nevada Wolfpack (0-1).
Nevada were considered to be one of the favourites in the WAC this season, but they were demoralised in their first game of the season last week in Oregon, being crushed 69-20. It was a tough place to open the season against a wounded Ducks team that had fallen to LSU in Week 1, especially considering the QB was making his first start.
Tyler Lantrip had a tough time for the Wolfpack, throwing 1 TD and 2 Interceptions in that game and he was eventually pulled, although back up Cody Fajardo also struggled. One key to the Offense was the fact they managed to gain over 230 yards on the ground against Oregon and we can expect that to be the starting point for them this week.
When your team has allowed 69 points in a game, it is no surprise to see that the Defense was shredded throughout the contest, both on the ground and through the air. The Wolfpack will at least take solace in the fact that they are unlikely to face a high-tempo Offense like Oregon this week.
San Jose State were completely outclassed in their first game at Stanford, and then fell to a double digit loss to UCLA as they struggle to get out of a losing run that has seen the Spartans lose 12 consecutive games overall. They have also lost 9 in a row in the WAC.
There are some serious issues to address at QB for the Spartans and they are unsure who they will be going with this week. Matt Faulkner, Dasmen Stewart and Blake Jurich have all had time under Center this season, but this vagueness means a lot of the Offensive load is on running back Brandon Rutley.
Matt Faulkner missed Week 2 after suffering a concussion in Week 1, but his status has been upgraded to probable for this game. Josh Harrison and Kyle Nunn, both Wide Receivers, are listed as questionable for this game having not played this season but both are expected to be starters when they return.
Ryan Otten (TE) is another player who is listed as questionable after being injured in Week 1.
Zach Sudfield (TE) was injured for Nevada last week and is likely out for the rest of the season. Marlon Johnson (FS) was suspended for the opening game at Oregon for violating team rules, but there are no indications whether the suspension is completed in time for this game.
Head to Head
Nevada have won 8 of the last 9 meetings between the schools, including the last 3.
The Wolfpack beat San Jose State by 22 points at home last season.
Nevada are 7-2 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between the schools.
The favourite is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games.
San Jose State are 1-1 against the spread this season, Nevada are 0-1 this season.
Other Interesting Notes
San Jose State are 7-17 against the spread in their last 24 games as the underdog.
They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 4-17 against the spread in their last 21 games in Conference play.
Nevada are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.
Prediction
This is a slightly risky play as I am backing the Nevada Wolfpack to come through and win this game while covering the spread.
I expect they will be able to make plenty of hay with their running game that may allow the QBs to settle into the game and not make the mistakes that blighted them in Oregon.
San Jose State have their own issues at QB, but they don't have the powerful running game of the Wolfpack and may be forced to move away from the run if they fall behind early.
I don't like taking bad teams on the road, but I think Nevada are still head and shoulders above San Jose State in this Conference and I do expect they will be a TD better.
The Pick :
San Jose State Spartans 17-24 Nevada Wolfpack
