NCAA Football
2011-09-24 - Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
Conference play has begun for the Florida Gators (3-0) already when they got through the Tennessee Volunteers last week, and now they face the Kentucky Wildcats (2-1) on the road with the real prospect of continuing their unbeaten run.
Florida's Offense has not really had to work too hard to gain wins thanks to an impressive Defense that has started the season so well. The Gators have the top ranked rushing Defense in the country and held Tennessee to - 9 yards from 21 carries last week, the fewest they have allowed any team in 5 years.
The Gators are also ranked at 6th in the nation when it comes to scoring Defense, allowing an average of 8.7 points per game in their opening 3 games of the season.
It will be interesting how the Kentucky Wildcats handle the top ranked rushing Defense in the country as it is their ground game on which they are so reliant. They were limited to just 35 yards on the ground in their defeat to Louisville in Week 3, their lowest total since 2008, and even more head scratching when considering they had amassed over 320 yards in the first 2 games combined.
Kentucky were much better through the air, but that did not seem to placate Head Coach Joker Phillips who knows that 'running the ball is the key to winning games'.
Florida will look to Chris Rainey to help them put the points on the board as he became the first Gator since 2007 to rush and receive for 100 yards or more in the same game. The Gators will feel if their Offense can put a few points on the board, that their Defense will be able to make the Wildcats one-dimensional and force them to beat them through the air.
Billy Joe Murphy (RT) and Mark Crawford (DT) are both definitely out after missing much of the season already for the Wildcats. A bigger loss for Kentucky is Raymond Sanders (RB) who is out for the next couple of weeks after starting the first 2 weeks in strong fashion. Taiedo Smith (FS) and Larry Warford (RG) will be out there on Saturday.
Jeremy Brown (CB) will be the biggest loss for the Florida Gators, although the Defense has not missed a step without the 10 game starter from last season.
Head to Head
Kentucky have a really poor recent record against Florida, losing 24 straight games in the series, the 2nd worst record in College Football.
Florida crushed the Wildcats 48-14 at the Swamp last season, and beat Kentucky 41-7 when they last played on the road against them.
The Gators have a 4-0 record against the spread in the last 4 meetings between the schools.
Florida are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games at Kentucky.
Kentucky are 1-2 against the spread this season, Florida are 2-0-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Kentucky are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 home games as the underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 21-10 against the spread in the last 31 games they have played in September.
They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Florida are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games as the road favourite.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
I was really hoping the Florida Gators were only going to need to lay 2 TDs for this game, but the spread has got higher since the beginning of the week as all the 'sharps' took that value and forced the layers to up the spread.
I still don't think it is high enough to keep the Gators from covering as I think they are far too strong on both sides of the ball and could do enough by simply limiting the Kentucky output.
Kentucky are arguably the worst side in the SEC so I am struggling to think how they will keep up with the Gators, although the biggest problem may be overlooking the Wildcats at the Alabama game next week.
Florida have blown out the Wildcats 3 years in a row and I will back them to do so again.
The Pick :
Kentucky Wildcats 13-41 Florida Gators
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Florida Gators -19.5 Points @ 1.95
