Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints Betting pick | 2011-09-25

NFL Football

2011-09-25 - Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Houston Texas @ New Orleans Saints
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 25 September 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The New Orleans Saints (1-1) and the Houston Texans (2-0) will both have serious ambitions of playing in the Play Offs at the least this season, but both will hope their Defensive units will be able to hold up to the pace if they do want to go all the way.

Not many will be tipping this as a potential SuperBowl preview, but both teams have showed they are capable of big things through the first two weeks of the new season.

Houston will particularly feel they can make franchise history by finally making it to the Play Offs as they head the AFC South, both in the standings and in the quality in their team. The Indianapolis Colts' fall from grace looks to be particularly beneficial to the Texans who now look head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in this Division.

Wade Phillips was employed in the offseason as the Defensive Co-Ordinator with the sole aim of making them effective enough to allow the high powered Offense the chance to win games and this seems to be reaping rewards already.

After finishing 30th in the NFL last season, the Texans is allowing the League best in yards allowed at 271 per game and points allowed at 10 per game over the first 2 weeks of the season. In fairness though, this is easily the biggest test this unit will have faced considering the first two opponents were the Colts and the Miami Dolphins.

New Orleans, unsurprisingly, are in the upper echelons of the League when it comes to Offensive totals. They have averaged over 400 yards in total Offense and averaging 32 points per game against the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. Marques Colston is out for the team, but they did not miss a beat last week.

The Defense will look to make the Texans one-dimensional by holding the running game to under 100 yards as they did to 3 of their last 4 opponents. Ben Tate will look to be the only the 2nd rusher in 16 games to rush for 100 + yards in the absence of Arian Foster.

The Defense will also have elite pass rusher Will Smith back in the starting line up after he completed his 2 match suspension.

Head to Head

These two have only met 2 times ever, with each gaining 1 win, the last of those coming for Houston at home in 2007.

New Orleans won the only time they have met here in 2003.

The Saints are 1-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 2-0.

Other Interesting Notes

New Orleans are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win by 14 points or more.

Houston are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog.

Interestingly, they are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games in the 2nd of back to back road games.

They are 17-29 against the spread in their last 46 games following a win.

79% of the wagers made in Vegas have been on the New Orleans Saints.

Prediction

Both teams should be able to move the chains on the other, even though Houston's Defense has been much improved in the early stages of the season. However, I was a little concerned for them as to how easy the Dolphins were being able to move the ball, and the Saints are a big upgrade Offensively from Miami.

The Miami Defense also caused Matt Schaub a few problems with sacks and this is where the Saints will try and do their best to put him into 3rd and long positions in a loud dome Stadium.

Ben Tate is expected to help open the passing lanes for Schaub, but the Saints have shown they are capable of shutting down running games and Will Smith will be a big improvement for the pressure they will get on Schuab.

Houston have got a lot of pressure themselves on the opposition QBs in the opening 2 weeks of the season, but Drew Brees is the smartest, and best, QB they will have faced and he will be able to get the ball out early and I can see plenty of potential for yards after the catch.

This should be a fun game, but I am going to have a small interest on the Saints to win and cover the spread.

The Statistics :

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-18	W	30-13	H v Chicago Bears
	2011-01-02	L	13-23	H v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2010-12-12	W	31-13	H v St. Louis Rams
	2010-11-21	W	34-19	H v Seattle Seahawks
	2010-10-31	W	20-10	H v Pittsburgh Steelers
	2010-10-24	L	17-30	H v Cleveland Browns

HOUSTON TEXANS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-18	W	13-23	A v Miami Dolphins
	2010-12-26	L	24-23	A v Denver Broncos
	2010-12-19	L	31-17	A v Tennessee Titans
	2010-12-02	L	34-24	A v Philadelphia Eagles
	2010-11-21	L	30-27	A v New York Jets
	2010-11-14	L	31-24	A v Jacksonville Jaguars