English Premier
2011-10-23 - QPR vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 23rd October - Kickoff 16:00pm
QPR
Warnock's side have made a decent start to the season picking up 9 points in their first 8 games which is good enough for 11th in the table. However, the side is yet to win at home this season and they are just 3 points above the drop zone. This Sunday they host Chelsea in a West London derby live on Sky television in the 4pm kick off.
After the Bolton defeat on opening day (4-0) many expected QPR to struggle this season. But that was very much a one off results as Rangers went to Everton and beat the Toffees (1-0) in a very good display. Their problem has been consistency as the next 6 games have seen the following results L-D-W-D-L-D which is a total of 6 points.
It's good to tick the points over for Rangers as they aim for that 40pt mark and a compliment to Warnock's side is that they are hard to beat. Not many newly promoted sides can hold their own in this division but Rangers have a fight about them and only 3 sides have taken all 3 points against them.
The home form as i mentioned before isn't great with 0 wins, 3 draws and a defeat. We could argue that the 3 draws with Newcastle (0-0), Villa (1-1) and Blackburn (1-1) have been solid points as Villa and Newcastle were undefeated at the time. But the reality is the home form is what keeps you up in this division and Rangers need to start winning games at Loftus Road and taking the pressure off when they go on the road.
Scoring just 2 goals at home is the main problem for Rangers which includes being shut out on 2 occasions to Bolton and awful defensive side as well as Newcastle who are not known as being away day specialists. The good news is that Chelsea hasn't kept a clean sheet for 7 games now so this looks a prime time to find the back of the net again.
Team news is that Agyemang, Campbell, Dyer, Gabbidon, Hulse and Rowlands miss out whilst Connolly is rated as doubtful for the game. The back line picks itself with Hall and Ferdinand forming a decent partnership in the middle. The midfield has some talent about it with Taarabt, Barton and Faurlin all very useful with the ball whilst Wright-Phillips will support Helguson up top with Bothroyd most likely being dropped.
Predicted Rangers Lineup :
Kenny, Young, Hall, Ferdinand, Traore, Barton, Derry, Faurlin, Taarabt, Wright-Phillips, Helguson.
Chelsea
3rd placed Chelsea make the short trip to Loftus Road as they look to close the gap on the Manchester clubs who square off earlier in the day before Chelsea kick off. Regardless of the outcome in Manchester, Chelsea has the opportunity to close the gap on 1 if not both of them so this is very much a must win game.
Chelsea have started slowly but are becoming a very strong side as Villas-Boas is transforming the way the Blues play their football. Chelsea now plays a quicker tempo with a high defensive line that looks to squeeze the opposition higher up the field. This tactic has not only has improved the way Chelsea win the ball back but it also makes them much more dangerous with less direct football being played with ball retention a must for the side.
When looking at the Chelsea away record, it's pretty sound with 2 wins, a draw and a defeat. The draw came at Stoke in a 0-0 draw which was a good point given United drew there and Liverpool were beaten at the Britannia. The loss as we know came at Old Trafford but the Blues played some cracking football there and on another day would have won that game.
Still they didn't and that's all that matters, in the 2 wins, Chelsea beat Sunderland (2-1) with minimum fuss as well as destroying Bolton (5-1) at the Reebok.
The side has goals in it and has accumulated 8 goals in those 4 games at an average of 2 a game which is impressive. What's not so great is conceding 5 at over a goal a game and with just 1 clean sheet for the Blues all season this is the worry.
Team news is that Essien, Hilário, Ramires and Torres miss out with no other injury doubts present. With Drogba, Mikel, Terry, Mata and Sturridge rested midweek Chelsea will be very fresh coming into this one and even Cole was subbed at HT to rest his legs. Mata and Sturridge are causing havoc going forward whilst Meireles has settled incredibly fast in this team. The loss of Ramires is a blow but the midfield is strong enough to play without him in a very good lineup.
Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Mikel, Meireles, Lampard, Sturridge, Drogba, Mata.
The Betting Verdict
QPR really need to start winning at home but I don't like their chances this weekend. Chelsea are flying right now and for them the need is greater, with the Manchester clubs squaring off before kick off Villas-Boas will surely not let this opportunity to close the gap slip.
Rangers have failed to scored in half their home games, whilst Chelsea has allowed the home side to score in 3 of their 4 away games. This could be a very open game with a lot of attacking football being played and I see both sides finding the back of the net.
If I was confident that Chelsea could keep a clean sheet I would back them on the AH currently -1.25. But until they break this league hoodoo I can't back them to win by 2 against a side that has only lost once at home. Instead I'll roll the dice for small stakes on Chelsea to win by exactly 1 goal aka the European Handicap which is the "Tie" selection.
I think Chelsea is the better team but Rangers will be up for this and in front of the Sky cameras I don't seem them being rolled over. The Blues to win but just by one is the pick. Away win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
QPR 1-2 Chelsea
