USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes Betting pick | 2011-11-04

NCAA Football

2011-11-04 - USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

USC Trojans @ Colorado Buffaloes
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Friday 4 November 2011 - Kick Off 9pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The USC Trojans (6-2) are not eligible for a Bowl appearance for the final time this season, but they almost took their role of spoiler to the ultimate level when just falling short in knocking off the Stanford Cardinal last week. Now they face the Colorado Buffaloes (1-8) who have struggled all season to even be competitive.

Both USC and Colorado are in the Pac-12 South and have contrasting records so far. The Trojans are 3-2 in Conference play this season while the Buffaloes have lost all 5 games they have played.

All the talk last week was surrounding Andrew Luck and what the projected Number 1 Draft Pick was going to do against the toughest team he had played this season. We can now add Matt Barkley to the list of potential top-10 Draft Picks for the NFL next April as he more than held his own in the game with Stanford, throwing 3 TD passes and just Interception in a game that was decided by triple overtime.

Barkley and the Offense should have plenty of success through the air in this match up as the Buffaloes have struggled to stop any team passing on them this season. USC's Offensive Line has protected Barkley well this season and could neutralise the Buffaloes pass rush and that time will allow the QB to tear up the Secondary using his favourite receiver Robert Woods.

I expect the passing Offense to have success as they will be able to move the ball on the ground with some ease and that will force the Buffaloes to respect the rushing game. Curtis McNeal has 4 rushing TDs on the season for the Trojans and will relish facing a Defense that has allowed 5.2 yards per carry. McNeal will also be looking to make up for last week when his fumble resulted in the USC loss.

Colorado will struggle to stop USC moving the ball up and down the field, and they may also have a few troubles moving the chains themselves. Tyler Hansen is only completing 55% of his passes from the QB position as teams know the Buffaloes have to throw the ball to get things moving. Hansen has 14 TD passes and 6 Interceptions on the season, and should have some success against this Secondary.

However, you have to expect USC will be focused on stopping the Buffaloes throwing the ball and will look for their pass rush to cause Hansen problems as he is likely to be in 3rd and long situations. Colorado's Offensive Line has really had a hard time protecting Hansen, while USC record around 1.9 sacks per game.

The reason Hansen is likely to be in 3rd and long situations is down tot he fact the Offense has struggled to run the ball with any consistency. Both Rodney Stewart and Tony Jones have struggled to move the ball on the ground and the team are averaging just 3 yards per carry this season. This doesn't figure to change much as the Trojans have been fairly stout against the run.

Colorado have some good news with the fact that Rodney Stewart has been upgraded to probable for this game. A more important player that has also been upgraded to probable is Paul Richardson (WR), a leading receiver who has 474 yards and 5 TDs this season. Unfortunately for the Buffaloes, it looks like their leading tackler, Anthony Perkins (SS), is set as questionable and looking unlikely to take part.

USC will try and not get caught early by Colorado as they will be missing TJ McDonald (S) in the first quarter for a late hit on a receiver last week, while Dion Bailey (LB) is questionable after receiving a concussion from the game last week.

Head to Head

This is the first meeting betweeen the schools since 2002 when USC won by 37 points on the road at Colorado.

Colorado are 2-7 against the spread this season while USC are 4-4.

Other Interesting Trends

Colorado are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home underdog.

However, they have lost their last 9 games against the spread as the underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They are just 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games in Conference play.

USC are 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 games following a straight up loss.

They are just 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.

Prediction

I am going to believe Lane Kiffin will have gotten his troops up for this game and so I will back the USC Trojans to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, USC should be able to score points consistently against the porous Colorado Defense that has allowed at least 45 points in each of their last 4 games. There is enough balance in the Offense to open both running and passing lanes and the chains should be moved consistently.

Second, Colorado have struggled to move the ball on the ground all season and that means they will have to take their chances through the air, something that should bring the strong pass rush of the Trojans into play.

Third, USC will be a little deflated after coming so close to an upset last week, but that has not done any long-term damage to their chances and a potential emotional let down has been addressed in public which leads me to believe the team will be focused on this game.