English Premier
2011-11-05 - Blackburn Rovers vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Blackburn Rovers
There is supposedly going to be the 4th straight demonstration against the management of Steve Kean at the weekend game at Ewood Park, although Blackburn Rovers have indicated that 'Kean Out' banners will not be allowed inside the stadium as they were in the previous 3 instances. With the pressure building, Kean is desperate for his Blackburn side to pick up a vital 3 points.
The team picked up 1 point from Norwich City last week, but Rovers fans must have been disappointed that the team could not see out a 1-3 lead with less than 10 minutes to go in that game. The point did mean the team moves up to 18th in the table having gained 6 points this season, but that means they are already 2 points off Wolves in the final position of safety. Blackburn are 1-0-4 at home this season, scoring 6 goals but conceding 12, giving them the 2nd worst home defence in the League.
Rovers have failed to win any of their last 5 League games since the fabulous 4-3 win here over Arsenal. They have failed to win any of their last 3 home games in all competitions, and worryingly have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 5 games at Ewood Park. Overall, they have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions.
Michel Salgado, Scott Dann and Ryan Nelson are all expected back in action after the international break, leaving Blackburn short of defensive options. Vince Grella is another player not expected back until after the 2 week League break and I expect Steve Kean will play the same XI that pushed Norwich all the way last week.
Chelsea
Andre Villa-Boas described last week as a 'disastrous week' for his team as they lost back to back Premier League games and his mood could not have improved much after Tuesday night when they drew 1-1 at Genk. Chelsea missed numerous chances in the game, and a missed penalty at 0-1 up by David Luiz proved costly to their chances of confirming qualification from the Champions League Group.
The 2 Premier League defeats they have suffered recently has seen the Blues lose their 3rd place in the Premier League and saw them drop to 4th, 9 points behind Manchester City with just over a quarter of the season gone. The team will look to improve their away form where they are 2-1-2 this season, scoring 8 goals and conceding 6.
The draw in Belgium means Chelsea have not won any of their last 4 games in all competitions (the win over Everton in the Carling Cup came in extra time) and a lack of clean sheets is beginning to take its toll on the team. Chelsea have only 1 clean sheet in their last 9 games in all competitions, while they have not had a clean sheet in the Premier League since the opening day of the season.
Interestingly, Chelsea have only scored more than 1 goal in 2 of their 8 away games in all competitions this season.
Michael Essien and Didier Drogba are the only absentees in the squad, while the likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard, Daniel Sturridge and Juan Mata will all be expecting to be restored to the starting line up.
Head to Head
Chelsea have a very strong record against Blackburn Rovers in the Premier League in recent games, going unbeaten in the last 10 while winning 8 of those games.
The Blues have won 4 of their last 5 games at Ewood Park in the League, including a 1-2 win here last season courtesy of an 84th minute winner through Branislav Ivanovic.
Chelsea have very rarely won by more than 1 goal here when they do pick up the 3 points, and only 2 of the last 16 games at Ewood Park have seen Chelsea win by more than 1 goal.
Prediction
This looks like a tougher game to predict than some may think right away as Chelsea have really struggled to get the goals away from home that their good play has deserved. Andre Villa-Boas definitely has this team going the right way, but their defensive concerns has to be a worry for all Chelsea fans, especially the way they are conceding goals.
Blackburn have really been struggling this season, but they do have goals in their team and I am sure they will feel they can earn something from this game if Chelsea again fail to get beyond the 1 goal mark away from home.
The price on a Chelsea win looks ridiculously short to me considering their recent form, and more so when remembering Tottenham were just under odds against to win here and Spurs have been in much better form than the Blues.
I may look really silly come 5pm on Saturday afternoon, but I am going to pick Blackburn to avoid defeat here as I feel Chelsea may just be a little distracted with the John Terry story and have already shown they are struggling to score goals away from home.
Blackburn are capable of scoring at least 1 goal, and that may be enough here to secure a point and at a price of 2.70 for them to do at least that, I think the home team will be the call for me at very small stakes.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Blackburn Rovers 1-1 Chelsea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Blackburn Rovers +1 English Handicap at 2.70 at Paddy Power(This bet pays out if Blackburn Rovers win OR draw)
