NFL Football
2011-11-13 - Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 10
Sunday 13 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams are unlikely to be making the Play Offs this season, but there are at least some positive signs for the future for the Carolina Panthers (2-6) who have shown so much more than last season with Cam Newton under Center. They face the struggling Tennessee Titans (4-4) who are losing grounds in the AFC South.
Tennessee lost Kenny Britt to a season ending injury and have suffered Offensively while losing touch with the Houston Texans. They are already 1.5 games behind Houston and have suffered a big home defeat to them as they looked to fill the void left by the terrible Indianapolis Colts.
Matt Hasselbeck has struggled to keep things going in the passing game without the deep threat that Britt was providing for the team and the Offense are altogether that much easier to defend against at the moment. He should have more success moving the chains against the Panthers Defense that has struggled through the air, but it will be tough for Hasselbeck if he is left in obvious passing situations in long yardage if the running game keeps struggling.
The Panthers have struggled against the ground attack all season, but Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Offense are providing just 3.1 yards per carry this season. Johnson's struggles have been particularly baffling after he signed a huge contract in the Summer, and it looks like a horrible piece of business for the Titans. If Johnson and Javon Ringer have a hard time moving the ball on the ground this week, it will remain tough for Hasselbeck to move the chains.
The most interesting thing coming out of Carolina this week was the news that Cam Newton was blaming himself for the fact the Panthers have not won more games this season. Newton has been having a great season considering his rookie status and has shown the League why he was picked Number 1 overall in the Draft, but this show of humbleness will have gone down very well with his teammates and elevated his status as a leader the team can believe in.
Newton provides a dual threat out of the backfield as he is athletic enough to make plays with his legs, but he has no worries throwing the ball around and making plays with his arm either. The Titans have struggled to get pressure on the QB in recent games and that could allow Newton to carve up a Secondary that has been torched for at least 250 passing yards in each of their last 5 games.
It could be made even easier for Newton if Carolina can continue churning out yards on the ground as they have been this season. Both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams should be able to combine to earn chunks of yards on the ground as Tennessee are struggling to stop teams on the ground, and all this should lead to the Panthers moving the chains consistently.
Head to Head
Being in opposite Conferences, the teams play rarely and last met in 2007 in Nashville, a game the Tennessee Titans won by 13 points.
The Titans have won the last 2 games in the series, but this will only be the 4th ever meeting between the teams.
Carolina are 5-3 against the spread this season, Tennessee are 3-5.
Other Interesting Trends
Carolina are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games at home. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
The Panthers are just 15-25 against the spread in their last 40 games as the home favourite of 3.5 points or more.
Tennessee are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am going to back the Carolina Panthers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Tennessee come off a tough home loss last week against the Cincinnati Bengals and continue to struggle Offensively.
Second, Carolina should be able to move the ball with more consistency than the Titans and Cam Newton's ability to run the ball as well as throw it should help them turn drives into TDs rather than settling for FGs.
Third, I think the spread should be higher than it is in favour of the Panthers and think they are still being under-rated, while the Titans are not that good a team in my opinion.
Fourth, Tennessee have lost 3 of their last 4 games, and have been beaten by at least 7 points on each occasion.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Carolina Panthers 24-17 Tennessee Titans
