English Premier
2011-11-19 - Manchester City vs Newcastle United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 3pm
Manchester City
Manchester City must have wished that the Premier League did not have to take a break for the internationals as they were in top form, while putting the pressure on their rivals by winning games even when not at their best. Carlos Tevez remains a huge pain for the club, although there has yet to be a negative impact in the dressing room as far as an outsider can tell.
Roberto Mancini's team lead the Premier League by 5 points over local rivals United, and they have been very impressive in picking up 31 points from the first 33 on offer. City have been perfect at the Etihad Stadium, winning all 5 games while scoring 16 goals and conceding just 2. Only Manchester United have scored more home goals, while only Swansea have conceded less in front of their own fans.
City moved into the international break off the back of 8 straight wins in all competitions, 7 of which had come following the last international break in early October. All of these wins have also come since the Carlos Tevez affair in a loss to Bayern Munich, while the team have scored at least 3 goals in 7 of their last 8 games.
A few supporters would have been worried when reports came out of Argentina that Sergio Aguero had suffered another hamstring injury while on duty for his national side against Bolivia last Friday. However, Aguero played the last game so should be fit to start here. Owen Hargreaves is the only doubt for Mancini.
Newcastle United
Everything is going well at Newcastle United, the players are performing well while the supporters are happy... well they were until Mike Ashley decided to wait until the international break to release the news that he has re-named St James' Park permanently. It seems the owners are not happy unless the supporters are on their back, and I expect there to be some chants aimed at their direction on Saturday.
While things off the pitch remain a little crazy, Alan Pardew has guided Newcastle to 3rd in the Premier League having gained 25 points this season. They have had a nice set of fixtures to start the season, but it is hard to take anything away from the Magpies who have really surpassed expectations. Newcastle are 3-2-0 away from home this season, scoring 7 goals and conceding 3.
Newcastle are unbeaten in all 14 games they have played this season, their only defeat coming in extra time against Blackburn Rovers in the Carling Cup. They have won 5 of their last 6 games in the Premier League, including their last 2 away games, although this is by the far the toughest challenge they have faced this season.
Mike Williamson is due back from injury this week, while Alan Pardew will be boosted by the likely returns of Cheik Tiote and Shola Ameobi.
Head to Head
Manchester City have a very good recent record against Newcastle United, winning 6 of their last 7 Premier League games against them.
City have beaten Newcastle in 4 of their last 5 meetings played in this Stadium, including a 2-1 win last season.
Prediction
This is a fascinating game between two sides that have been playing well in the Premier League, and it is also the first real acid test of Newcastle's ability to gate-crash the top 4 this season.
Manchester City will provide a real test for the Magpies, and I do expect they will win the game even if it takes them a little time to get the breakthrough.
The reason I say that is that City have been pretty slow starters this season, only scoring 9 of their 39 League goals in the first half of games, while also going into the break at 0-0 in 3 of their 5 League games at home.
Newcastle have been a tough team to break down, especially away from home, and I can imagine they will be set out to frustrate City for as long as possible in the hope they can nick a goal on the break and secure a shock result.
I considered backing City to win this game to nil, but the games between the sides have seen both break through consistently, while City have conceded a fair few goals recently as Mancini sets them out in a positive manner.
Instead, I am going to take a chance on the first goal in this game coming after 22 minutes are played for the reasons I went through above.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Time of first goal after 22 minutes @ 1.92 (Paddy Power)
