NFL Football
2011-12-04 - Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 13
Sunday 4 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is usually one of the games in the regular season that people would circle, including all those figuring which games should be moved onto the primetime spots. However, things have gotten so bad for the Indianapolis Colts (0-11) this season that this game has been moved from the Sunday Night Football game into a regular 1pm start.
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (8-3) will look to maintain their grip on the AFC East and will also look at the problems in Houston to think they may well end up with the Number 1 seed in the AFC if they can win out their games. Bill Belichick is not the kind of Coach who has too much sympathy for wounded opponents and this does have all the makings of a massacre.
There really isn't a lot I can write about this game as the Colts' problems have been plain to see. I have no doubt that the Patriots will be able to score at will, whether they use the ground game or the passing game. Indianapolis have struggled to stop anyone scoring points and Tom Brady is in line to have a big game while the Patriots are known for piling on the points even when the game is won.
The question, when you have a spread this big, is how the Indianapolis Colts will be able to score enough points to at least keep the score respectable. Dan Orlovsky will be given the start, the 3rd different QB for the team this year, and he has not really shown a lot in his career to suggest he will make enough plays in this game.
New England's Secondary had been struggling earlier this season, but they have been playing a little better in recent weeks and they are not facing a QB that could take advantage of any problems they did have. Orlovsky may make a few plays, but this looks like being a tough afternoon for some of the veterans who will have been used to challenging the Patriots in years passed.
Head to Head
New England beat Indianapolis by 3 points last year at home, stopping a run of 5 defeats in the previous 6 games against the Colts.
The Colts are 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
The underdog is 12-3-2 against the spread in the last 17 games in the series.
New England are 7-4 against the spread this season, Indianapolis are 2-9.
Other Interesting Trends
New England are only 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Indianapolis are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are 7-21 against the spread in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am going to back New England to cover this huge spread but I do have a couple of concerns too. I am backing the Patriots for the following reasons:
First, New England are known for running up the score when they get the chance so I don't expect them to let up if they get the Colts down.
Second, Indianapolis are a terrible team that looks like they have called it a day for the season and now start a QB that is quite bad in my opinion.
Third, the Colts are likely to turn the ball over a couple of times and that could give the Patriots short fields and a chance to keep the scoreboard ticking over frequently.
Be careful though, this is no given... Teams in the NFL that have been favoured by 20 or more points are only 2-7 against the spread in previous instances. Also, keep an eye on the weather as the colder it gets, the tougher it is to keep passing the ball and score points for fun.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New England Patriots 34-10 Indianapolis Colts
