NFL Football
2011-12-18 - Washington Redskins at New York Giants
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The New York Giants (7-6) saved their season last Sunday by coming back from a 12 point deficit in the final 5 minutes to knock off the Dallas Cowboys and take control of the NFC East. They cannot afford a let up with 3 weeks left of the season as they face Divisional rivals the Washington Redskins (4-9).
The Giants had lost 4 games in a row before the win last week, although they have shown some real signs of what they are capable of in the last couple of weeks. They face a Redskins team that has lost 8 of their last 9 games following a 3-1 start and they have a chance to earn revenge over Washington for a defeat in Week 1.
Eli Manning has had a very impressive season all round, compiling some big 4th Quarter comebacks and he could have a big day with his receiving corps all back to health and able to start. Washington's Secondary is a tough one to pass against and they are able to get plenty of pressure on the QB up front, but there looks to be far too many options for Manning for the Giants to be slowed down.
Manning has been exceptional all year, but there has been plenty of pressure on his shoulders as New York have struggled to get an effective running game going. However, there were signs that Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw could get things going on the ground, although Washington have only allowed 4.1 yards per carry this year. However, the Giants Offense should still have enough success to keep the Defense honest.
Washington themselves should be able to have success against the Giants Defense that has struggled for much of the season to stop teams having their way with them. The Secondary is struggling, but they do get plenty of pressure on the QB and they should be able to take advantage of Washington's Offensive Line.
That means it will be up to Rex Grossman to make the necessary reads from QB and take advantage of the Secondary. He will still be missing Fred Davis, but earned enough success against the New England Secondary to suggest he can have a big game this week. The problem is whether the Giants can do enough against the Offensive Line to extract 'Bad Rex' and the errors he is capable of making.
I expect the Redskins will also use a lot of Roy Helu to counter the pass rush and he should be able to have a big game against a Defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry. Helu has only recently been given the opportunity to play as the full time starter for this team and has responded with 3 consecutive 100 yard games and 2 TDs in the last 3 weeks.
Head to Head
The Giants had won 6 consecutive games in the series before the loss at FedEx Field earlier this season.
Washington have won the last 2 games against the spread against the Giants, but New York were 4-0-1 against the spread in the previous 5 games in the series.
New York have won their last 3 home games against Washington, going 2-0-1 against the spread in those games.
New York are 6-6-1 against the spread this season, Washington are 6-7.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 home games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
Washington are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals.
Prediction
I had a bit of a think about this game, but I am backing the New York Giants to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Giants will be absolutely focused on maintaining their lead over the Dallas Cowboys after winning there last Sunday and they will also want to earn revenge over Washington for earlier this season.
Second, New York have a good record at home against Washington in recent games, both straight up and against the spread.
Third, Washington should have some success moving the chains here, but they have been beaten by at least a TD in 5 of the last 7 games they have played and could find it tough to keep up with the Giants in a track meet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Giants 31-24 Washington Redskins
