Eng. Championship
2012-02-11 - Southampton vs Burnley
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Championship
Saturday 11 February 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Southampton
Southampton have hit the buffers of late and they are in danger of losing their spot as one of the automatic promotion candidates for the Premier League as the challengers begin queueing up behind them. A 2-3 defeat here during the week to Millwall in the FA Cup will have only knocked the confidence further as St Mary's has lost its fortress status in the last few weeks.
The Saints are still 2nd in the Championship, but they are now 4 points behind West Ham at the top of the table, while only 2 points better off than the surging Birmingham City team and Cardiff City. Southampton are 11-2-2 at home this season, scoring 31 goals and conceding 12, but most of the negative results have come in the last few weeks.
The team have not won any of their last 5 games in all competitions, 3 of which have come in the Championship. Southampton have won just 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions at St Mary's, and they have failed to win any of their last 4 games. The Saints have lost 3 of their last 4 games here.
Danny Fox is back in the squad after completing his suspension. Billy Sharp, Kelvin Davis and Jack Cork will all return to the side as they recover from injuries and ineligibility from the game against Millwall on Tuesday night.
Burnley
Burnley have been making their way up the Championship table in recent weeks and they could be a dangerous team if they make the Play Offs through the backdoor and without anyone really noticing them. Eddie Howe is a very good young manager and it would have been very disappointing if he had been removed from his post, while Burnley's patience may just be rewarded come May.
The team dropped down to 11th in the Championship after drawing with Peterborough United at home last week, but they remain just 3 points behind Middlesbrough in the final Play Off position and they are only 8 points behind Southampton in the automatic promotion positions. Burnley have an 8-0-6 away record, scoring 19 goals and conceding 18.
Burnley are unbeaten in their last 4 games in the Championship, and have only lost 1 of their last 8 League games. The team have been enjoying their football away from home in recent weeks, winning 5 of their last 6 away League games. They have scored at least 1 goal in their last 9 away games in all competitions.
Martin Paterson and Junior Stanislas have both been ruled out of this contest. Ross Wallace and Keith Treacy are both available having recently had injury issues.
Head to Head
Southampton and Burnley drew 1-1 at Turf Moor earlier this season.
They last met here in the 2008/09 season with the game ending in a 2-2 draw.
The Saints have failed to win any of their last 4 home games against Burnley.
Prediction
This could be a really tough game for Southampton to try and bounce back to form as they have been struggling in recent weeks and face one of the form teams in the Championship.
Burnley have have a decent record at St Mary's and they have been playing very well away from home in recent League games. They look capable of scoring goals and that could very much give them the edge in this game despite Southampton being odds on to win the game.
In saying that, I think Southampton themselves are capable of scoring a goal or two in this game and that all points me in the direction of taking the 'Over'.
3 of the previous 4 games between the teams before this season had ended with at least 3 goals scored and this has the making of another considering the forms of the side and the fact that Burnley have yet to draw away from home this season.
The Pick :
Southampton 1-2 Burnley
