Real Madrid vs Apoel Nicosia Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-04-04 - Real Madrid vs Apoel Nicosia

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Real Madrid v Apoel Nicosia
Football: European Champions League, Quarter Final Second Leg
Wednesday 4 April 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid lead 3-0 from the First Leg

Real Madrid

Real Madrid have more than one foot in the Semi Final of this competition when they will be facing the Bayern Munich, although Jose Mourinho has made it clear that his players will still be respecting their Cypriot visitors to the Santiago Bernebeu.

Mourinho was also praising his side for still leading Barcelona by 6 points in La Liga as they look to break their great rivals dominance both at home and in Europe. The Champions League has been good to Real Madrid this season as they have won 8 of their 9 games in the competition. All 4 games at the Bernebeu has seen the home side win comfortably, with a 3 goal margin at the very least in each game.

The team have won 3 games in a row in all competitions after back to back draws in La Liga allowed Barcelona to close the gap on the leaders. Real Madrid have won 7 of their last 8 games here in all competitions, scoring at least 3 goals in each win, the only exception being the 1-1 draw with Malaga. They have also won 9 of their last 10 home games in the Champions League.

Sami Khedira, Lassana Diarra and Ricardo Carvalho are all definitely out for the home team, but Angel Di Maria and Jose Callejon are in the squad. I expect there will be some changes made to the starting line up to keep players fresh for the game against Valencia here over the weekend.

Apoel Nicosia

Let's face facts here- Apoel have already exceeded expectations by reaching the last 8 of the Champions League this season and it is clear they are going to enjoy their time in the Spanish capital. Ivan Jovanovic knows the side are out of the competition, but they will want to show what they are made of in this game.

Apoel are going to be involved in a round-robin tournament against the other sides that finish in the top 4 in the Cypriot top flight to determine if they are to make it back into the Champions League next season. They are 7-4-4 in the competition this season, going 2-3-2 away from home.

The home loss to Real Madrid is the only defeat Apoel have suffered in their last 9 games in all competitions and they have won 6 of those games including a 1-2 win at local rivals Omonia Nicosia last weekend. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away games in all competitions since back to back defeats on their travels.

Gustavo Manduca is back from suspension, while Savvas Poursaitides and Panos Constantinou are both expected to shake off knocks. Ailton will need to pass a late fitness test to determine his availability for this game.

Head to Head

This will be Apoel's first trip to the Santiago Bernebeu for a competitive game.

Real Madrid have won their two previous home games against Cypriot opponents, while Apoel are 0-1-4 in games played in Spain.

Prediction

The tie is over and it would need absolutely monster odds, and someone else's money, for me to back Apoel to get through to a Semi Final with Bayern Munich.

The question becomes how much Real Madrid are going to be focused on this game and I would be more than surprised if the players selected do not want to make a statement to Jose Mourinho that they should be involved down the stretch with some big games to come for Real.

I do expect changes to the starting XI by Mourinho with the big game against Valencia on the horizon and this tie effectively in hand, but those players are not going to want to let up and end their own chances of helping Real Madrid in the big games left to play.

I also don't expect Apoel will roll over here, but Real could have many more than the three they ended up scoring last week and I think the standard is just a couple of levels higher than anything the Cypriots have seen this season and it will be tough for them.

My biggest concern is that we may see the sides settle for a 2-0 game, much like Bayern Munich did in their win over Marseille on Tuesday, but the fact Real have scored at least 3 goals in each home game in Europe this season, as well as in 8 of their last 9 home games in all competitions, means I will go for Real Madrid on the Asian Handicap.

The Statistics :

REAL_MADRID LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-03-14	W	4-1	H v CSKA_Moscow
	2011-11-22	W	6-2	H v Dinamo_Zagreb
	2011-10-18	W	4-0	H v Lyon
	2011-09-27	W	3-0	H v Ajax
	2011-04-27	L	0-2	H v Barcelona
	2011-04-05	W	4-0	H v Tottenham

APOEL_NICOSIA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-02-14	L	1-0	A v Lyon
	2011-11-23	D	0-0	A v Zenit_St_Petersburg
	2011-10-19	D	1-1	A v Porto
	2011-09-28	D	1-1	A v Shaktar_Donetsk
	2011-08-17	L	1-0	A v Wisla_Krakow
	2009-12-08	D	2-2	A v Chelsea