Euro 2012
2012-06-08 - Poland vs Greece
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group A
Friday 8th June - Kickoff 5:00pm
Poland
Smuda's Poland get Euro 2012 under way on Friday night as they host Greece in the National Stadium, Warsaw. The Poles host this tournament alongside Ukraine and they must fancy their chances of reaching the last 8 given the soft nature of Group A. However, in order to do so they must get something from the first game against the Greeks which won't be a gimme by any means.
Poland haven't made the knockout stage of a tournament since 1986 but given they face Russia, Czech Republic and Greece in their Group A this will be their best chance to break that trend.
The side hasn't got many well known names in it but there are a few who are very good. The key players are Szczesny in goal from Arsenal who is becoming a incredibly reliable whilst going forward the front 4 will cause problems.
Lewandowski of Dortmund scored 22 in 34 games this season which led his side to the domestic title. Lewandowski will lead the line and is supported by the trio of Rybus, Orbraniak and Blaszczykowski (also Dortmund) who combined for 13 domestic goals this season.
The weakness in this side is that beyond the front 4 there is a lack of great quality going forward and often they grind a result rather than blitz teams. If they are chasing the game against Greece it would become difficult but the good news is they have won 10 of their last 15 against the Greeks and at home they are a strong fancy.
Greece
Fernando Santos has replaced Otto Rehhagel and is slowly transforming the perception of the side. Known as a defensive and compact side, mainly from their Euro 2004 win, this Greek side is more adventurous than those of the past and won't be looking to win 1-0 anymore. Unfortunately for them they face a very solid Polish side as the tournament gets going on Friday night with a positive result needed.
The Greeks topped their qualifying group which had Croatia in it winning 7 of their 10 games and losing none. To add to this very good unbeaten run, the Greeks have lost just once in the last 20 odd games so they enter Poland in very confident mood.
Despite this very good qualifying campaign and the attacking intent shown by Santos, they only scored 14 goals in their 10 games which was the fewest by any side qualifying. Their top scorer was tied with 2 but the positives is that 11 different goal scorers found the net so there are goal scoring options all over the pitch for when a chance falls.
As expected from this side, defensively they remain tight, that will never change and conceding just 5 goals in qualifying backs that up. Interestingly Croatia failed to score in both games against this side which is impressive especially given how good the Croats are in their own back yard.
Betting Verdict
With Russia the best side in this group and Czech Republic *potentially* the worst, second place may come down to this game and ultimately qualification. This is also the tournament opener in Poland so to see the Poles favourite is no shock at around the evens mark.
In games since Aug 08' Greece's games have ended unders 60% of the time and Poland's 62% unders over the same time frame. This will be a tight, tough game where ultimately the winner will be by a solitary goal. Given those stats it's no surprise to see Unders priced at cira 1.50 and that is no good to anyone.
With the front 4 of Poland in good form, especially the Dortmund boys having just won the Bundersliga I have to favour them. The crowd will be electric and if Greece look to try and play more than usual in their new style it may backfire on them. Poland drew with Germany and Portugal whilst beating Argentina and Ivory Coast on their own turf leading up to this tournament and I think they should have enough to beat Greece.
A fear is the Greeks will score, having done so in their last 6 games but that is canceled out with the game being in Poland's back yard whilst the Poles have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 4 games coming into this one. As a result, I'm going to back Lewandowski and co to just get the job done with the draw the biggest threat in my eyes. Take the home side to get off to a flyer. Home Win.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Poland 1-0 Greece
