Euro 2012
2012-06-18 - Croatia vs Spain
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group C
Monday 18th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Croatia
Bilic's Croatia come into this game with 4 points from a possible 6 and have a few permutations to make the last 8. If Croatia win or match Italy's result they are into the Quarter Finals or any score draw from 2-2.
As a result many pundits are wondering if the 2-2 scoreline will hit as it means Spain win the group and Croatia finish second. A 2-2 draw in this game normally would be 20/1 odd? Not this Monday! It is as low as 4/1 in some places and currently the smallest price of any correct score for the game.
Many Croatian players have said they are insulted by the claims etc But after Sweden - Denmark in 2004 I.m still very skeptical!
Against Ireland, the Croats scored very early and just controlled the game playing some quick tempo football. The Irish did get it back to 1-1 only for the Croatian's to score just after half time and then added a killer 3rd.
The crunch game against Italy was a strange one. The Italian's created plenty of chances I think i saw 11 by the early stages of the second half at one point. But Prandelli's side scored just the once and then Mandzukic grabbed the equiliser which proved enough as Croatia held the Italians 1-1.
Mandzukic is the danger man for this side, with 3 goals so far I expect to see plenty of crosses aimed at him. Ireland couldn't contain him and Italy despite doing ok for long spells eventually got caught out themselves. The only fears are that Pique may be a level above him, whilst Spain are likely to have high possession. Also he took a bang to his ankle late in the game and I'm not sure if he will be 100% for this one.
Spain
Current European and World Champions also have 4 points from 6 and as mentioned above a 2-2 draw will see them win the group and in their eyes that's all that matters.
With Spain I don't expect them to play for a draw which in itself is hard enough let alone 2-2. Croatia to score 2 seems a big ask to me, Del Bosque's side will have some 65% possession in the game and as we saw last time out they will punish you!
In game 1, Spain had a lot of the ball v the Italians only to suffer in front of goal. Strangely they went with 6 midfielders and no out and out striker, it meant that Italy were able to prevent any clear cut chances. The Spanish failed to get inbetween the Italian lines and a very good counter attack goal from Di Natale looked to have rattled the side. Well...for all of 3 minutes, Fabregas quickly qualised and then Torres came on.
The Chelsea man missed two great chances to win the game but his impact was important he stretched the Italians. The game ended 1-1 but in game 2 he started, scored 2 goals and Spain won 4-0 dominating from the first whistle. As a result, El Nino is sure to start up top each game and I think the side is definitely good enough and motivated enough to win this game.
Betting Verdict
In 4 games with Spain, Croatia have just the 1 win with 2 defeats. If Bilic's side can keep the ball and get crosses into Jelavic and Mandzukic then they can cause problems.
The fear is they will have little of the ball and their off the ball pressing which worked well v Italy, may not work here. In that game they pressed high right up to the Italian defenders but this Spanish side can play and has the tools to evade the pressure.
If Spain score first I see them scoring at least a second and whilst both teams to score is odds on I think they can contain Croatia here. I certainly see Spanish goals but do I see 2 Croatian ones? On paper no but with the "fix" around it wouldn't surprise me. I hope this is a proper game and if so I'm all over Spain.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Croatia 1-3 Spain
