Euro 2012
2012-06-18 - Italy vs Republic of Ireland
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group C
Monday 18th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Italy
The coaches change but the Italian way of going about their business hasn't! Noone expected them to take anything off Spain but they did, with lots of confidence and plaudits going their way many expected a win over Croatia. Instead another draw was recorded and it's must win now over Republic of Ireland or Prandelli's side are out.
Even if the Italian's win taking them to 5 points, a 2-2 draw in the other game will mean elimination due to goals scored just like in 2004 when a last minute equaliser in Sweden - Denmark to make it 2-2 knocked the Italians out.
Still regardless of the other game, Itay needs to win this last group game first. That's all they can do and if the fix happens then it happens. The 1.30 prices on the Azzurri to do so is shameful and I don't like that bet at all!
In the first 2 games we have seen 2 contrasting Italy's. In game 1 they frustrated Spain and scored an excellent counter goal. The defence looked solid in the new 3-5-2 system and there was even a goal threat which not many sides have against Spain. The 1-1 final score set them up nicely to beat Croatia but that wasn't to be.
Just like in game 1 this game ended 1-1. Italy scored first through an excellent Pirlo freekick but then faded as Croatia took control and thoroughly deserved their equaliser. The Italian coach has been critical of the sides finishing with many chances wasted but my concern is at the other end.
Maggio and Giaccherini as wing backs are constantly being caught out and it's no shock that the Croatia goal came from a cross. Whilst Chiellini should have been marking his man, if there's no cross there's no danger and that rests with the wide men. In the Spanish game Fabregas scored as Giaccherini didn't track his diagonal run, so both goals in my eyes are because of the wing backs. Whether Ireland can create as good a goal threat as Croatia and Spain it remains to be seen.
Republic of Ireland
The Irish were the first side to be eliminated from this year's Championships. Back to back defeats mean Trapattoni's side can only finish on 3 points whilst the two leaders already have 4. The Italian has said he won't get his Italian colleagues an easy time and will go for the win. The Irish are a proud bunch and won't want to go home having lost 3 straight which makes this game very interesting.
Many expects including myself thought game 1 v Croatian would decide the Irish fate and unfortunately they just didn't get going. Croatia scored early and kept creating chance after chance which in the end was too much for Trapattoni's men. Ireland lost the game 3-1 and then had it all to do against current Champions Spain.
The Spanish in game 2 needed a win badly themselves and Ireland felt the full force of the Spaniards. A Torres double inspired Spain to a 4-0 win and with that the Irish were out. All that there is to play for is pride and the opportunity to send the Italian's out with them.
Betting Verdict
As I said above, 1.30 for Italy is terrible price. In my opinion Italy needs at least 2 goals to beat ANYONE in world football at the moment. In both games so far they haven't done this and as a result have 2 draws.
The defence has looked good at times but then conceded really poor goals, in particular the Croatian one where the striker had time to bring a cross down in the 6 yard box!
The slight bonus is that Ireland's Doyle and Keane are not as prolific as the Croatian two so it may be easier to keep them out. On the other hand Ireland beat Italy 2-0 in a friendly not too long ago away from home so they know it can be done.
I think this game ends 2-1 or 1-1 and as a result I'm taking the Irish +1.5 goals. Italy just need to win initially and I don't see Ireland giving up an early goal for the third straight game. As it goes on and get's tighter I don't trust the Italians to score enough goals for this to cover.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Italy 1-1 Republic of Ireland
