Euro 2012
2012-06-19 - Sweden vs France
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group D
Tuesday 19 June 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
This looks like a perfect chance for France to secure top spot in the final group of the European Championships as they face a Sweden team that has already been knocked out of the competition. The French will not take the game for granted as they are still not totally secure of a place in the Quarter Finals, while the chance to avoid a clash with Spain in the next round will be further motivation.
France are in control of their own destiny and they will top the group if they win this game by the same number of goals as England do in the other game OR if England fail to win. After securing a 0-2 win against the Ukraine, it would take a heavy defeat to Sweden coupled with a narrow loss for England to see the French exit the competition.
The team are also in a position where they will go through no matter what happens in this game as long as Ukraine do not beat England, so to say the permutations are in France's favour is not really an understatement.
Sweden have looked desperate defensively in their first two games and they were on the wrong end of high-scoring games in both. It will be particularly disappointing for Sweden that they were actually leading against both Ukraine and England, but threw away those positions into losses.
There seems to be a mixed view coming out of the Swedish camp about the importance of this match summed up by Zlatan Ibrahimovic- he first had an interview stating that he really wants to bring home some points from this game before Sweden go home, only to later say that he is already looking forward to his holiday and has a plane on standby if it is a little cold in Sweden.
Laurent Blanc is expected to make a few changes to his starting XI with the room for error France have in the group. With a few players a booking away from a suspension, Blanc is expected to keep them out to avoid them missing the Quarter Final.
Head to Head
France beat Sweden in an international friendly 2-3 in Gothenburg back in August 2008.
The French are unbeaten in their last 11 games against Sweden, although 3 of the last 5 games have ended with the points shared.
Prediction
I can see why the French are favoured and I think it is important for them to finish top of the group so they can have the 'easier' of the potential Quarter Finals, but it is also hard to gauge who they consider being the better team to face out of Italy and Spain.
While their motivation is still to qualify, it is not so clear cut to see what the motivation for Sweden is- some will say earning a point will mean a lot to them, but we have seen with Holland that that doesn't exactly make the world of difference in these situations.
I also think Ibrahimovic's comments about looking forward to his holiday suggests that there isn't so much motivation that Sweden can go on and secure a point, although it could be a closer match than expected.
Sweden have shown they can get on the scoresheet and they may exploit a set piece, while France should want it enough to win this game. I'll have a small interest in France winning this game with 3 or 4 goals scored in the match.
The Pick :
Sweden 1-2 France
