AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-18 - GWS Giants vs Sydney Swans
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 22
Venue : Spotless Stadium
18th August 2018, 4:35PM AEST
Overview :
GWS Giants are 3rd on the ladder, winning 5 of their last 5 games and 9 of their last 10 games, making them the best team in the competition since round 11 with a 9-1 record, losing only to West Coast in Perth. The wins in the last 5 games came against Richmond, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Carlton and Adelaide Crows.
Sydney Swans on the other hand are up to 6th on the ladder following some good performance in the past fortnight. The Swans have won 3 of their last 5 games and the wins came against North Melbourne, Collingwood and Melbourne while the loss came against Gold Coast Suns and Essendon.
After some lackluster performance by the Swans resulting in back to back defeats at the hands of Gold Coast Suns and Essendon, John Longmire’s side have responded well in winning two hard contested games against Collingwood and Melbourne.
John Longmire have constantly relied on his veteran players and while it was just started to creep in people’s mind that the Swans may miss out on finals as the veterans were past their best, these veterans stepped up and secured two massive wins in the past fortnight.
After going through some rough patch earlier in the season, Leon Cameron’s side found form midway through the season and peaked just about the right time. However, with injuries piling it, I believe the Giants may have peaked too early.
John Kelly out with a concussion is massive blow for the Giants. Kelly missed 6 games earlier this season and the Giants went 2-4 without him. Since his return, the Giants are 9-2. Giants will struggle to find another ball move to replace Kelly’s as his ability to burst through the middle and play the open ball in the corridor is one of the best in the competition.
While Sydney Swans are not known for their strong presences in the ruck, but in the last meeting between both sides earlier this season, Cullum Sinclair dominated the ruck, winning twice as much as the entire GWS team hit outs.
Lance Franklin has kicked 52 goals this season and average about 3 goals a game this season but Franklin in my opinion is still not in his best form. Franklin has squandered many opportunities in the past month or so in front of goal, kicking more behinds than goals in his past 4 games. Despite all that I believe that Franklin will still posses the biggest threat to GWS winning or losing the game. If Franklin can influence the game in either the scoring goals himself or bring the ball down into his team mates, the Swans wins. If he is a non-factor, the Giants are in with a chance
Shady's Verdict:
Sydney surprised many including myself in last week win over Melbourne. There were some doubts that Sydney could be the one falling outside the top 8 but after last week performance I believe its fair to say that Sydney have an outside chance in finishing in the top 4 and have the double chance opportunity.
Despite Lance Franklin presences in the heart of the Swans forward line, the Swans have spread the goals around in previous years, however they have heavily relied on Franklin this season. When Franklin is firing on all cylinders, the Swans wins when he doesn’t the Swans may just craw over the line with a tight low scoring affair.
Josh Kelly and Heath Shaw absentee are a massive blow to GWS. Shaw’s awareness and positioning helps restrict Franklin presences. Without Shaw, it will be hard for Davis or Tomlinson to shut Franklin on their own. As for Kelly, Giants may find it hard to break open the Swans without Kelly’s burst and ability to move the ball in midfield.
The Swans may not be as good as a team they have been in recent years. However, given that GWS are without key players and the terrible form Jeremy Cameron is in since returning from his injuries, I believe the Swans will manage to pull through and secure a massive win at Spotless, pushing for a top 4 finish and potentially finishing 4th and take on Richmond in the opening week of the finals.
The Swans did a great job in making finals last year after falling 0-6. However, their failure to finish inside the top 4 last year in my opinion cost them in reaching the Grand Final. John Longmire is well aware that they could still miss finals if they lose the next two but winning both remaining games could just place the Swans nicely to make a deep run this finals campaign.
The Bookmakers are still pricing GWS as favorites to win the game and Sydney Swans as outsides, but I’d suggest jumping in early if you are prepared to back the Swans. The Swans are currently @2.15 Can’t see the odds for Swan winning to remain over $2.00 by Saturday.
The Pick :
Sydney Swans win by 15 Points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Sydney Swans to win at $2.15 with Bet365
