AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-19 - West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 22
Venue : Optus Stadium
19th August 2018, 1:20PM AWST
Overview :
The West Coast Eagles are currently 2nd on the ladder winning 4 of their last 5 games. The four wins came against Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Collingwood, while the only loss came at the hands of North Melbourne in Tasmania.
Melbourne Demons on the other hand are 7th on the ladder, winning 3 of their last 5 games. Gold Coast Suns, Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs, while the losses came at the hands of Sydney Swans and Geelong.
The Eagles are almost guaranteed 2nd spot and a home final after last week’s dramatic win over Port. Things will need to go terribly wrong for the Eagles not to finish 2nd and the Eagles in my opinion have not much to play for apart from maintain form and keep their spot in the first 22.
As for Melbourne, the players future is potentially on the line after some disappointing results in the past month. Melbourne at one point were favourites to finish in the top 4 and possible even as high as 2nd but they are now fighting to remain inside the top 8.
Adam Simpson deserves credit after last week’s win in Adelaide. He did what was require in playing a high tempo game and not allowing many stoppages given that Port were down several rotations. Simpson’s current Eagles team are a good team, but I do not think they are a great team just yet.
Despite the good win, I believe that luck had a major role to play in the win against Port last week. If Port did not lose both Ryder and Dixon, I just could not see how the Eagles midfield could have influence the game they way they did towards the end.
Paddy Ryder dominated the battle against Scott Lycett and Nathan Vardy, the Eagles duo are up against an even better version of Paddy Ryder in Max Gawn. Unless Gawn is to go down injured, I cannot see how Lycett will even get a sniff against a far superior Gawn.
I believe that Alex Neal-Bullen, Clayton Oliver and Angus Brayshaw have plenty to offer and will most likely form one of the best trio combination in the game over the next few years. In the coming years they are likely to match Geelong’s Dangerfield, Selwood and Duncan and Sydney’s Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery.
Shady's Verdict:
The Demons have a poor record against the “better” teams in the competition. Simon Goodwin’s side is full of talent, but they tend to choke when it matters most. A lot of this comes down to experience and given that they are a relatively young squad, they will improve.
Therefore, despite the difficult task in Melbourne faces in the next two weeks in facing Eagles and GWS, I believe that Simon Goodwin has the talent at his disposal to win not only one but both remaining games.
Melbourne are 2nd in number of disposals this season and 3rd in goal accuracy but are the 2nd worse team in the competition in rebounds inside 50. Eagles on the other hand are the 3rd lowest team in the competition in disposals. Therefore if the Eagles cannot maintain the ball and allow the Demons to have repeated entry, the Eagles are in deep trouble, considering they are likely to lose the ruck battle.
Bearing apart another after the siren kick by the opponent or blunder by Melbourne, there is no better way for Melbourne to silence some critics from the media by winning against a 2nd seated opposition on the road.
The Demons may have the worse winning record by a top 8 side against a top 8 opposition, but I am fully behind the Demons coming good just when it matters. They can ill afford another loss against a top 8 side and leaving their final’s spot on the line to the very last game. Max Gawn to take full control of the ruck battle and Brayshaw, Oliver and Neal Bullen lead by Nathan Jones to win the midfield battle and lead the Demons to a memorable victory in the West.
The Pick :
Melbourne by 18 Points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Melbourne Demons to win at $2.25 with Ladbrokes
