AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-24 - Port Adelaide vs Essendon
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 23
Venue : Adelaide Oval
24th August 2018, 7:20PM ACST
Overview :
Port Adelaide are 9th on the ladder, winning only once in their past 6 games. The only win came against Western Bulldogs, while the losses came against Fremantle, GWS, Adelaide Crows, West Coast and Collingwood.
Despite hope in the Port fans that their team may still make it to finals, bearing a meltdown at Kardinia Park with Gold Coast winning against Geelong, Ken Hinkley side will not finish inside the top 8 despite the result against Essendon.
Port are without a handful of players and their humiliation loss last week against Collingwood paints us the picture we need to know about their season – started off well, faded off, came back and disappeared when it mattered most.
Essendon on the other hand are 11th on the ladder, winning 3 of their last 5. The three wins came against Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda while the two losses came against Richmond and Hawthorn. Essendon very really convincing in the wins and despite losing to both Hawks and Tigers, Essendon came extremely close in both games.
After started the season poorly with a 2 – 6 record through the first 8 games, John Worsfold side since round 9 are 9 – 4 . Two of the loss came against reigning champions Richmond, while the other two came against Collingwood and Hawthorn.
Devon Smith was the 2nd highest ranked played on the pitch in last week’s game against Tigers. His work rate is phenomenal and to rake in 28 disposals as a small forward speaks a lot. Smith alongside Stringer, Hooker and Tipungwuti(if he plays) will play a big role in shutting Port’s defence. Smith and Co will limit Port’s ability to play the fast running football from the back which has been effective for Port in the earlier part of the season.
While Jake Stringer is averaging almost a goal less than his breakthrough year in 2015, Stringer is one of the most effective players off the middle in centre bounce for the Bombers. Given that Tom Bellchambers will face a half fit Ryder or a makeshift ruckman in Westhoff, Essendon should dominate the middle and playing Stringer there will be an extra boost for the Bombers.
It is unlikely Port will risk Paddy Ryder long term health in a game that would not change the outcome of the top 8 in my opinion. Should they risk Ryder, he may still be not as effective as he could be given his limitation in mobility.
Given the injuries Port Adelaide have, it is hard to see Port matching up Essendon in scoring. Port have shown in times that are able to shut and limit opponents from scoring but that is something we have not seen in the past month or so.
Shady's Verdict:
After losing 5 of their last 6, it leaves many wondering what went wrong at Port. Was it not the right fit with the recruits or was there a problem at the coaches’ box? While it could be a little of both but, in my opinion, I believe it is the latter is probably the main cause.
The easy and logical choice would be to back the home team to win on the final day of the home and away season and give them the slimmest of chance to play finals football. I would not disagree with anybody telling me Port Adelaide are likely to win this and take this as consolidation victory to wrap their season up, however judging by how Port Adelaide performed in the past month under the leadership of Hinkley, I am not prepared to back Port with a single penny.
With the injuries, current form, Goddard playing his farewell and several Essendon players playing for contract next seasons, my money is on Essendon in causing an upset at a cracking $2.35. I believe the odds should be closer to $1.95(even money) rather than $2.35.
Essendon have played very well in the past few months and are very unlucky not to play finals football this season. Not only were the Bombers getting results during this period, they were play right brand of football which we expect from a talented team, which is vital in my opinion.
Do not hold your breath but I’m on Essendon to win this game, send a message out to the rest that they will be finals bound next season and give Brendon Goddard final night as a Bomber a night to remember.
The Pick :
Essendon by 20 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Essendon to win at $2.35 with Ladbrokes
