AFL Aussie Rules
2018-08-25 - Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES : Round 23
Venue : SCG
25th August 2018, 7:25PM AEST
Overview :
Sydney Swans are currently 5th on the ladder, winning 3 of their last 5 games. The wins came against all top 8 opposition in GWS, Melbourne and Collingwood while both losses were against team outside the top 8 in Gold Coast Suns and Essendon.
3 back to back wins against quality oppositions have instil confidence that this Swans side still have something to offer. It was looking at one stage that John Longmire’s reliable and consistent veterans might no longer make it in the elite level but these veterans have shown us that they still something to offer after some solid display in the past 3 weeks.
Hawthorn on the other hand are one spot above the Swans, 4th on the ladder, winning all their last 5 games. The wins came against St Kilda, Geelong, Essendon, Fremantle and Carlton but 3 of those wins came by 11 points or less.
Despite last week win against St Kilda, I believe the Hawks were relatively careless and do not look like the team that have won five on the bounce. While the win against Essendon was lucky in my opinion, the Hawks have done well to position themselves with a chance to finish inside the top 4.
This would possibly be a huge game for Tom Mitchell. Mitchell who is chasing his first Brownlow may be leading candidate to win Charlie, but Charlie is not in the bag just yet and if he is unable to impact the game once again due to a tagger, I think some of the other candidates following closely are in for a shout. George Hewitt have been doing great job in tagging other players and he should be given the task in tagging his former teammate in Tom Mitchell.
Lance Franklin has been scoring goals, but his fitness and form is something that concerns me. Buddy has kicked 15 goals in his last 5 games, but he has also kicked 17 behinds. Franklin kicked 4 of his 5 goals last week after Phil Davies went out. Given that Frawley is out injured it will be interesting to see if any of the Hawks defenders can contain Buddy in a one V one situation, but I doubt that they could. The Swans have been using this to their advantage in recent weeks and expect them to do the same with positive results.
Jarryd Roughead is back into the line-up but the Hawks does not have a big forward line, especially when McEvoy and Ceglar both do not play at the same time. The Hawks threat comes from their small forwards such as Breust, Puopolo and Gunston. Given that Rampe’s and McVeigh ability to read the game and Grundy back into the team, the Swans should have this area covered. Afterall, the Swans are one of the best defensive side in the competition.
Shady's Verdict:
We are all aware what is at stake. Winner of this game finishes inside the top 4 and a double chance this September, loser will possible finish as low as 6th spot, possibly taking on Melbourne or GWS. Both Longmire and Clarkson are experience premiership managers that would be well aware that only Western Bulldogs have manage to win the flag finishing outside top 4 in the past 12 years, therefore securing a win here would put them a massive step forward in securing yet another premiership or at least another trip to the Grand Final.
My biggest concern for the Swans would be the speed of Jarman Impey, Jaeger O’Meara and Issac Smith possesses running from Half Back. We have seen in recent times that this aging Swans team may struggle to handle the pace, but I have absolute confidence in Longmire ability to tackle this problem.
I believe this will be a hard-fought low scoring game and Buddy cannot afford to kick so many behinds or the Hawks will punish them, possible against the run of play. This has recently been a very close affair and I expect that to be the case once again.
Home advantage and a small pitch to play a major role in decision the outcome. The Swans to edge Hawks by a slim margin.
The Pick :
Swans by 12 points
