AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-15 - Collingwood Pies vs GWS Giants
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES :Semi Finals
Venue : MCG
15th September 2018, 7:20PM AEST
Overview :
Nathan Buckley should be very disappointed with last week’s result against the Eagles. The Pies had all the momentum in the game but failed to step up when it matters in the last quarter. The home crowd obviously had a huge role to play in pushing the Eagles past the finish line but an experience side like Collingwood should have slowed the game down and played the game to their strengths rather than a fast pace game that suits the Eagles.
Leon Cameron on the other hand would be so delighted with the result his side secured last week against the Swans. The Giants completed dominated the game and for those that do not follow AFL weekly, they must be thinking the Giants was up against one of the reserve team. Rather than saying Giants were brilliant I would prefer to say the Swans was absolutely shocking.
Buckley is heading into the game with an unchanged line up. As for the Giants, Cameron is forced to do with key midfielder Josh Kelly, and omitted Harry Perrymen and their replacements are Ryan Griffen and Lachlan Keeffe.
In the key statistical area, Collingwood are the number one team in number of disposals and are top 3 in goal scoring accuracy and disposals efficiency. The Giants in contrast are the number 1 clearance team in the competition. However with the Brodie Grundy in the opposing ruckman and Kelly out injured, I am very uncertain if the Giants can dominate this key area which they have done so all season long. Rory Lobb is a decent ruckman but I do not believe he is in the elite group of current top ruckman as Brodie Grundy. Grundy in my view is definitely in the top 5 active ruckman, possibly even top 3 this season.
Phil Davis did a splendid job last week in stopping Lance Franklin last week and his task this week should be on big Mason Cox. Cox unlike Franklin is not the only and number 1 threat posses up front. Cox has the size over Davis and even if Cox does not win the one V on battle, as long as Cox brings the ball down to the smaller Pies forwards, the Pies are in with a decent chance.
With Josh Kelly out, it will be hard for Leon Cameron to assign Ward or Coniglio towards Sidebottom or Pendlebury. Taking Ward or Coniglio out of the game might also hurt the Giants as they may not have the firepower to break this Pies midfield.
Sidebottom is averaging career highs in average disposals this season. He had an average game last week against the Eagles and I expect him to step up. Sidebottom smart ball use will be key and his influence over the game will be key and I believe Sidebottom will dominate and get 35++ disposals.
Toby Greene is a very talented player and was brilliant last week but with all the attention in the past week on the way he marks the ball with his legs kicking around, the umpires will be zeroing in on it. I do not think the umpires will let those “dangerous” plays go, and it may come back to frustrate Greene and put him off his game.
Shady's Verdict:
I believe the win by GWS has flatter many and made people feel that the Giants are in with a chance, however in my view the Swans just played so badly that it made it look as if the Giants were up against a reserve side.
The journey back to Melbourne have given many to believe that the Pies are at a massive disadvantage, having to make this long travel back and the last team to play in the opening week but let’s keep in mind, in 2015, the Hawks travelled to Perth lost to West Coast, went back to Melbourne the following week dispatching The Crows, going back to Perth again for the Preliminary finals to take on Fremantle but finally going back to Melbourne and winning the Flag against Eagles. The 2018 Pies are obviously not in that elite group of 2015 Hawks category yet but I do not believe the travel back to Melbourne should be any factor to sit towards GWS.
In fact, I believe the extra game will give the likes of Treloar, Goldsack and Howe to improve in their fitness and game condition. In this first game back, Treloar was relatively unproductive despite racking up 24 disposals. I believe we should see the disposals count to increase together with score involvement and play a bigger role in this Pies side.
Home advantage will definitely play a huge role in this game. The Giants do not hold a good record at the MCG and the Pies are a very good team at the MCG this season. The 49 point win by Giants and the 16 points loss might make you feel the Giants are in with a decent chance but I believe the Pies should be overwhelming favourites to win.
Josh Kelly out is a massive blow for the Giants, in their previous game without Kelly against Melbourne in round 23, Giants just could not generate any flow towards their attacking half. The Pies are unlikely Sydney and are likely to dominate possession and also inside 50 count.
Scoring in finals may not be as easy as it was in the home and away season but with Jeremy Cameron still no where near his best, it will be hard to expect the Giants matching up with Collingwood in scoring.
If Collingwood can put their act together, I expect the Pies not only win but win big. If they come out the blocks slow and allow Giants into the game then the Giants might hang in but ultimately the home advantage together with some brilliance between Grundy, Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Treloar to pull the Pies through and have a date with Richmond in the Preliminary finals.
The Pick :
Collingwood by 25 points
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Collingwood Pies to win at $1.58 with Bet365
