AFL Aussie Rules
2018-09-29 - Collingwood Pies vs West Coast Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
AFL AUSSIE RULES :Grand Final
Venue : MCG
29th September 2018, 2.30PM AEST
Overview :
Collingwood shocked many by beating Richmond last week at their own game – pressure football while the Eagles took care of business at Optus Stadium. Both sides were impressive in the Preliminary final but let’s take a deeper look in their road to the Grand Final.
Collingwood finished 3rd on the ladder and was up in Perth to face Eagles in the first week of the finals. Eagles fans may deny this, but the Pies had the better of Eagles all the way up to the end of 3rd quarter. The lack of finals football in the past 5 years cost the Pies the game.
In the following week, they had a fast start only to let GWS back into the game before taking care of business towards the 4th quarter. The finals experience was priceless as it helped them in next game against Richmond. While Richmond made a fight back late in the game, the Pies were able to beat the Tigers to their game and came up top. Mason Cox who failed to make any sort of impact in the first two weeks of the finals finally realise that he will not be able to stand under the ball and mark, instead he would have to come in as the 3rd man or from the side.
As for the Eagles many may disagree, but they have been lucky in my view on both games. They took full opportunity in the 4th quarter against the Pies, who failed to create a bigger cushion at the end of 3rd quarter and Melbourne did not pose any real threat and the game was over early in the 2nd quarter. Therefore, they were very relaxed and played an easy game.
Collingwood are one of the highest disposal team in the competition averaging 401 disposals, while the Eagles are 3rd last in the competition averaging 356 disposals a game. While Eagles have been efficient scoring on most days, on a bad day, their inability to maintain the ball may come back to haunt them. To give you a better idea on how little is 356 disposals are, only bottom two teams on the ladder, Carlton and Gold Coast Suns averages less disposals a game than Eagles.
Elliot Yeo have stepped up since Gaff went out suspended late in the season. Yeo was the difference the last time both sides met. Yeo launched several inside 50 in the 4th quarter that fell straight onto Kennedy and Darling.
Yeo may go up against Pendlebury and I do not see Pendlebury collapse on the big stage as the Demons midfielders did last week. Using Yeo to shut Pendlebury is not ideal in my view as that would limit Yeo’s influence in the game. Instead I believe Phillips might be used to shut Yeo down.
Pies ability to break up the Eagles first line of defence is something Adam Simpson needs to work on as the Pies were able to hand ball passes in the middle and break them up in their last meeting. Pendlebury, Treloar, Varcoe, Phillips, Adams and Sidebottom are all good uses of the ball and the Eagles can ill afford to give them space.
Kennedy and Darling are both big targets and Collingwood would need to ensure that there are no easy marks 60-70 meters of out goal as they would leave to easy kicks up to Kennedy and Darling. Jeremy Howe who did a great job last week will likely play the sweeper role once again and his ability to intercept marks will be crucial.
Norm Smith Medal:
Steele Sidebottom is currently the favourite at $7.00 and Sidebottom in my view has a high chance in picking up the Norm Smith Medal. Sidebottom is having a career season, averaging 30 disposals a game this season compared to his career average of 24.4 disposal.
Eagles did well to limit Sidebottom to only 27 disposals in the game in Perth earlier this month, but I expect Sidebottom to be raging in confidence after finishing 2nd in the Brownlow vote and pick up 35+ disposal. It will be hard for the adjudicators to miss out on him if Collingwood wins flag and he picks up 35++ disposals, unless of course one of the other players kicks a bag of 5 + goals.
In saying that, Jordan De Goey at $15.00 is a dark horse in my view. His ability to create separating on defenders should make him a leading candidate to score a few goals for Collingwood. However, after such performance last week against Tigers, he may receive extra attention from the Eagles defenders and this could give the other small Collingwood forwards “less attention”. Both Hoskin-Elliott and Jaidyn Stephenson are priced at a huge $51.00 and is probably worth a small punt in case they kick a bag of 5+ goals. It is unlikely but at $51.00, its worth a beer’s money on it.
Shady's Verdict:
Steele Sidebottom finishing 2nd on Monday’s Brownlow votes speaks a lot on how influential he has been to the Pie’s success. The Eagles will need to shut Sidebottom at all cost if they are to win in Melbourne on Saturday.
Sidebottom is consistently the player that drops to the opposite end of where the ball is being played and Collingwood tends to swing back across, and Sidebottom will be the one picking up “cheap” disposals from inside 50 and starting the attack. His ability to pick a good pass into the middle will break open the Eagles first line of defence, and it will be up to the likes of Treloar, Pendlebury, Varcoe, Adams and Phillips to bring the ball inside 50.
Despite Mason Cox grabbing headlines in the past week, it is Jordan De Goey that the Eagles need to worry about. His speed and ability to create separation is something that cannot be taken lightly. He made two of the best defenders in the game, David Astbury and Alex Rance look non-existence last week. Adam Simpson should have seen what De Goey was able to do against a top-notch defence in Richmond last week therefore expect extra attention on him.
The Eagles have been lucky on both occasion in the finals. The Pies had the better of Eagles 3 quarters of the game but fell short on the 4th quarter in which the Eagles took full opportunity. The Pies in my view were very unlucky not to have won that game.
Against Melbourne, rather than saying the Eagles had such a great performance, I would see it as Melbourne did not turn up and collapse at the big stage. Melbourne was just creating turnover after turnover in the middle and the Eagles just had the composure to score and eventually the scoreboard pressure was too great that the game was over midway through the 2nd quarter.
I have highlighted this all season that I do not believe that the Eagles can sustain kick and mark in finals football and I will still stand firm on it regardless whether Eagles win the flag or not. They may get away on a few games but from past records, it is not sustainable. Adelaide Crows was heavy favourites heading into last season finals and Grand Final but fell short and I believe the Eagles are in similar position.
Buckley has done a great job this season and have impressed me throughout the season and I believe he will finally get the job done after 4 seasons of below average football. Collingwood is my pick, what's yours?
The Pick :
Collingwood by 25 points
