NCAA Football
2018-11-24 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish at USC Trojans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Week 13
Saturday 24th November 2018 - Kick Off 8pm
British Time: 1am
Preview
After twelve weeks of the regular season have been put in the books, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish know they are one win away from having their place punched into the College Football Play Offs for the first time. An unbeaten Fighting Irish would be tough to ignore by the Committee who have had them Ranked in the top four since the first release of the Play Off Rankings.
Some have suggested the lack of a Conference Championship would hurt Notre Dame, but I think that is only the case if they have one loss. In this case a defeat to the USC Trojans, who have a losing record, would likely mean they are knocked out of contention for the Play Offs and that means there is some pressure on the Fighting Irish as they head to California.
There should be motivation on the USC Trojans sideline to first off knock out a rival searching for a big season, but the Trojans are also looking for one more win which would earn them a Bowl Game. Last week they blew a Fourth Quarter lead against the UCLA Bruins who had won just two games through the regular season which suggests the Trojans are not interested in keeping Head Coach Clay Helton in his job nor wanting to play in a Bowl Game that won't have the same national interest as those USC aim for every season.
If the Trojans are beaten in Week 13 they are going to have their first losing season since 2000 and I don't think Helton is going to survive as Head Coach if that happens. After the performance against rivals UCLA in Week 12, it is hard to see how the Trojans are able to turn things around to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who have a Defensive unit that deserves a lot of respect.
Last week they shut down the powerful Syracuse Offense at Yankee Stadium, although Notre Dame were perhaps aided by the injury to Eric Dungey, the Orange Quarter Back. Even then it can't be ignored that none of the last seven teams faced by the Fighting Irish have not been able to score more than 23 points.
The Trojans can't really rely on any aspect of their Offensive unit to believe they are going to become the first to surpass that number of points since the end of September. The Fighting Irish are able to clamp down on the run and they then force teams to try and throw against a strong Secondary while dealing with the pass rush Notre Dame are able to generate.
It looks to be a big ask for JT Daniels who had a critical Fourth Quarter Interception in the loss to the Bruins in Week 12, a play that turned things against the Trojans. He is not going to be able to make plays any easier against one of the best Secondaries he would have seen in 2018 and Notre Dame will believe the Defensive unit puts them in a position to win this game.
The Defense gets plenty of attention for Notre Dame, but it may have been the decision to make Ian Book the starting Quarter Back which has really sparked this team. Book returned from an injury to have a strong game against Syracuse last week and he has been playing at a very high level while being backed up with a strong running game that has allowed the Fighting Irish to find balance Offensively and move the chains efficiently.
After seeing some of the lacklustre play from the Trojans last week against UCLA, I do think Notre Dame will be able to move the chains efficiently and the edge on both sides of the ball makes it difficult to oppose them.
USC have blown out Notre Dame the last two times they have hosted them, but this current version of the Trojans don't look up to the task. The favourite is 6-0 against the spread in the last six in this series and the Trojans have some really poor trends against the spread as they have dropped to 6-19-1 against the spread in their last twenty-six games overall.
The Fighting Irish have shown they can back up big wins by going 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten games following a win by 20 points or more. They have everything on the line in this game at the Los Angeles Coliseum and I expect Notre Dame to show why they should be one of the Play Off teams with a very big win on the road.
Prediction
Lay the points with the road favourite.
The Pick :
USC Trojans 21-34 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
