Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Betting pick | 2018-12-06

NFL Football

2018-12-06 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
United States: NFL Week 14
Thursday 6th December 2018 - Kick Off 8:20pm
British Time: 1:20am

Preview

We are beginning to see the Play Offs take shape in the NFL as we have reached Week 14.

While a number of places are still up for grabs, some teams know their fate is playing January Football while others have effectively been eliminated or are going to be confirmed as eliminated in the next couple of weeks.

Thursday Night Football gives us a very big game in Week 14 of the 2018 season when the Tennessee Titans host Divisional rivals the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans fought back from a big deficit to beat the New York Jets on Sunday which has left them 3 games behind the AFC South leaders Houston Texans, although the main focus for the Titans has to be chasing the Number 6 Seed in the AFC as the second Wild Card team.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars 2018 has been an extremely disappointing season considering they were literally one bad referee decision from playing in the Super Bowl back in February. They did beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13, but the players have accepted they are likely playing spoiler now they are 4-8 and needing to win out and have A LOT of help going their way to make the Play Offs in back to back seasons.

Big decisions will be made in Jacksonville in the off-season, but one has already looked like it has been made when Blake Bortles was benched for Cody Kessler at Quarter Back. Bortles should really have been upgraded following the run to the AFC Championship Game, but he was given a chance that has not been taken although it seems pretty obvious that Kessler is not the long-term answer at Quarter Back either.

Kessler might have been Quarter Backing the Jaguars in their win over the Colts in Week 13, but they scored just six points and it was the Defensive unit who stepped up. He will at least have Leonard Fournette back from a suspension and the Running Back could have a strong game against a Titans Defensive Line that has not been able to stop the run in recent games.

However Tennessee have tended to play better at home and they will surely look to clamp down on Fournette and dare Kessler to beat them with his arm. The Titans can get some pressure up front which will challenge the Jacksonville Defensive Line, while the Secondary have not been easy to throw against and I would not imagine Kessler is able to change that here.

There is a definite edge for the home team as far as their Quarter Back goes and Marcus Mariota has been given the all clear to play this game on Thursday Night Football as he looks to keep Tennessee in a position to make the Play Offs. The Titans can't really afford to drop too many games so they will need Mariota to be at his best, especially as it will be difficult for the Titans to run the ball against the Jacksonville Defensive Line.

Jacksonville have not been as strong against the run on the road as they have been in recent games overall, but the performances does make it difficult to imagine either Derrick Henry or Dion Lewis having a huge game.

Mariota is thus going to have to use all of his scrambling skills to get away from the pass rush that the Jaguars will have as his own Offensive Line have struggled in pass protection. There have been too many games when their Quarter Back has been dropped multiple times so the injuries suffered by Mariota can't be a big surprise, but the last couple of games has seen Mariota at his best and he has a strong record against the Jaguars.

You have to credit Jacksonville for the way they shut down the Indianapolis passing Offense on Sunday, but Mariota should be able to make some plays with his arm in this one. He has to be careful of Interceptions though and Mariota will need one or two Receivers to step up to put Tennessee in a position to win this game.

Tennessee are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six games in this series while the home team and the favourite are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight. The Titans do have a poor record at the window after winning a game, but they have been strong at home and have improved to 12-4-1 against the spread in the last seventeen at home.

Ultimately I trust Mariota much more than Kessler in this one and Jacksonville are going to need a huge Defensive effort to hurt another Divisional rival's season. They showed against Indianapolis they can do that as they turned over Andrew Luck multiple times in their own half, but Cody Kessler will have to make some big plays and this Tennessee Defensive unit is more than capable of creating something big to turn momentum in their favour too.

This is a big number to cover in what could be a tight game, but Tennessee have the mental edge over Jacksonville and I like them to do that.