NFL Football
2019-01-06 - Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Play Offs Wild Card Round
Sunday 6th January 2019 - Kick Off 4:40pm
British Time: 9:40pm
Preview
Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.
I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.
Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.
Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.
Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.
Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.
The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.
There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.
I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.
Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.
The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.
Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.
The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.
Prediction
Lay the points with the home favourite.
The Pick :
Chicago Bears 27-17 Philadelphia Eagles
