NFL Football
2019-01-13 - Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Play Offs Divisional Round
Sunday 13th January 2019 - Kick Off 1pm
British Time: 6pm
Preview
The schedule for the NFL Play Offs have not really been any help at all to the Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) who are once again in the early Eastern Time slot on Sunday in the Divisional Round. A reminder has to be given that this is essentially 10am start for the Chargers who had to play in the same time slot when they met the Baltimore Ravens on the East Coast during Wild Card Weekend, although it didn't prevent them from winning the game.
It was a tough battle against the Ravens, but the Chargers were deserved winners and now they have had to do a lot of travelling ahead of another meeting with the New England Patriots (11-5) in the post-season. The Chargers actually finished with a better regular season record than their hosts, but that counts for nothing in the Play Offs and Philip Rivers has never led his team to a win over the Patriots when Tom Brady has been at Quarter Back.
A big negative trend goes against the Chargers too which adds to the worry about this early kick off for the West Coast team. Any team that is playing a third consecutive road game in the Play Offs are just 20-37-2 against the trend in that game.
I have already picked the Indianapolis Colts to cover in that dynamic and I do think the Los Angeles Chargers can be the second team to overcome the trend. I can't help but be concerned that this early kick off coupled with all the recent travelling could leave them short, but Los Angeles should be looking to play hard for Captain Brandon Mebane who is back with the team in the week where his seven week old daughter passed away having had complications from her birth.
The Chargers have to go back to basics if they are going to win this and that means running the ball effectively and challenging the New England Defensive Line which has had problems for most of the season. Some of the recent Chargers numbers running the ball have been affected by the fact they played a strong team like the Baltimore Ravens twice, but Melvin Gordon is set to go and I would imagine there will be a big dose of the Running Back fed to the Patriots to try and open things up for Philip Rivers.
In recent games the Quarter Back has not been at his best, but he has been efficient and Rivers will feel he has the Receivers to make plays against the Patriots Secondary. There have been signs of improvement from New England on the back end of their Defensive unit, but it could mean a lot of one on one coverage if the Chargers are able to run the ball as they can.
There is some more concern with how many people have tried to draw a line through the New England Patriots and that makes this team dangerous. I have learned to never write them off, although there have been signs that the Brady era is very much closer to an end than it ever has been before.
Tom Brady has been playing with an injury by some accounts, but the Quarter Back's experience in the post-season can't be dismissed. It has been more of a struggle with Josh Gordon's off-field issues ending his season and Rob Gronkowski looking like a shadow of his former self, but New England are very tough to beat here in Foxboro and I expect them to have prepared very well through the Bye of the Wild Card Round.
The Patriots have a strong run game of their own which can make things much easier for Brady and leaning on Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead could be the way to go. It has to be said that the Chargers Defensive Line is an under-rated one and they have shown they can play the run very well, but this week they will be respecting the Quarter Back and that may mean a few more holes up front to be exploited.
I would expect Brady to have success throwing the ball, but the key to beating this Quarter Back in Play Offs past has been the ability to get pressure on him that does make Brady a touch jittery in the pocket. The Los Angeles Chargers have a very strong couple of Defensive Ends in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa who can cause havoc up front and both will need to have a big game just to get Brady thinking about where the pressure is coming from.
That could be the key for the Los Angeles Chargers in trying to upset the odds and winning another tough road game on the East Coast.
The Chargers do have a miserable 0-4 record against the spread in their last four games against the New England Patriots, but they were very competitive in a loss here last season. Both teams have some very strong trends to lean on, but I think getting more than a Field Goal for Los Angeles is just appealing enough to be backed here.
It might need a backdoor cover and a clean game from Rivers to do that, but the Chargers are playing with confidence and belief and they do look capable of upsetting the odds for a second week in a row.
Prediction
Take the points with the road underdog.
The Pick :
New England Patriots 23-20 Los Angeles Chargers
