Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Betting pick | 2019-01-20

NFL Football

2019-01-20 - Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
United States: NFL Play Offs NFC Championship Game
Sunday 20th January 2019 - Tip Off 3:05pm
British Time: 8:05pm

Preview

Back in Week 9 of the regular season the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams at home and that not only ended the unbeaten run of the visitors, but it also meant the Saints were able to secure home field advantage through the Play Offs. Even after the game in Week 9 the feeling was that the two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game and that has proven to be the case.

Both received a Bye in the Wild Card Round which would have been a huge help, but the Saints and Rams showed they are the two best teams in the NFC with the performances in the Divisional Round. The Rams dominated the Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while the New Orleans Saints survived being punched in the mouth early in the game with the Philadelphia Eagles and overcame a 0-14 deficit to earn their spot in the Championship Game.

Two Offensive minded Head Coaches will receive plenty of media attention during the week, but it is going to be the play of the Defensive units which decide this game. While the Saints and Rams have been capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the two Defensive units have played their part at pivotal moments and that is going to be all important in this one.

Beating the Saints in the SuperDome may be one of the biggest challenges in the NFL and they proved that through the season. A Week 1 upset to Tampa Bay and a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers with rested starters should not cloud the difficulty the Los Angeles Rams have in winning here on Sunday afternoon.

The Rams Defensive Line was huge for them against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round as they clamped down on Ezekiel Elliot. However Wade Phillips has seen his Defense struggle against the run all season and I don't think one game is enough to suggest things would have changed significantly.

When they played here in Week 9 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara had big games for the Saints and I do think the two dynamic Running Backs can do the same here. Ultimately the Rams have to respect the quality Quarter Back Drew Brees and his ability to make plays through the air and that may lead to more holes for the New Orleans Offensive Line to exploit and set the team up in third and manageable situations.

Michael Thomas had a monster game in Week 9, but I think the Saints will be looking to other options with Aqib Talib back. Drew Brees has been able to throw many unfamiliar names open and I do think play-action and short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield will keep the chains moving and put some pressure on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams to keep up in what could be another shoot-out.

Last week the Rams were able to establish both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson in their win over Dallas and they had some really long, time consuming drives which may be the game plan for this one too. Keeping Brees and company off the field and cooling them down would be huge for the Rams, but they are playing an under-rated New Orleans Defensive unit that may feel they have the talent to make some big plays.

There has been a key injury on the Saints Defensive Line which may have a big impact on the game. Sheldon Rankings is done for the season and is a big body in the middle of the Saints Defensive Line which helped them hold teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season. Now the Saints have to face Gurley and Anderson without him having seen the two prove huge in the win over the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and that could be where this game is won and lost.

New Orleans will feel they have enough playmakers to win this game if they can stop the run like they have for the season, but it looks a big ask. That makes things a little more comfortable for Jared Goff who has not maintained his form from the first half of the season through to the second half.

Goff has not been asked to do a lot with the run game working as well as it has for the Rams and he will need all the support he can get again if they are going to win this game. There are holes in the New Orleans Secondary to exploit, but those are much easier to attack from third and manageable than third and long so Gurley and Anderson have to have a big game and Los Angeles can't afford to fall into a big hole on the scoreboard.

It is a difficult game to predict because you simply can't know how the loss of Rankings is going to affect the New Orleans Saints. If the Rams can run the ball effectively they will be very difficult to beat, but what I do think is that we are not going to get the same time of shoot out as we did in Week 9.

Both teams will look to run the ball and I don't think the Saints will get the chunk plays through the air as they did last time. Running the ball means the clock gets worn down that much quicker and long, effective drives will be the order of the day for the Rams.

It is a big total with many expecting the teams to pick up from where they left off in Week 9, but both Offensive units have not been as explosive in the back part of the season. The Championship Game looks a good one, but one where I will look for the total points line to be a touch on the high side.