NCAA Basketball
2022-04-02 - Villanova Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NCAA Basketball Tournament Final Four
Saturday 2nd April 2022 - Scheduled 6:09pm
11:09pm (British Time)
Preview
Two teams with long winning runs and with Conference Tournament successes prior to the NCAA Tournament have worked their way through to the Final Four and will meet in the first of the two games scheduled for Saturday. The Villanova Wildcats (30-7) won the Big East Tournament, but they are the underdog in the Final Four when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks (32-6) who won the Big 12 Tournament.
Both of these teams were Seeded in the top two when the NCAA Bracket was put together and they have dealt with the opponents that have been put in front of them. It is the Villanova Wildcats who have been the more impressive when it comes to the betting window, but they suffered a key injury in their Elite Eight win over the Houston Cougars and on that may be very difficult for the Wildcats to deal with.
Justin Moore has been lost with an Achilles injury and that has just dented the depth of the Wildcats. It may mean the team are forced to rely on a very short rotation over long minutes in their bid to earn the upset and I do think that is going to be tough to do against the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Wildcats will still feel they can have their moments from the three point range and that may mean they avoid any early blowout, but losing their second best scorer is a huge blow. Villanova are also taking on a Kansas Defensive unit that has picked up their intensity in the NCAA Tournament and Villanova have failed to score more than 63 points in either of their last two wins.
It is a number that is unlikely to be good enough to beat a Kansas Jayhawks team who have averaged 75 points per game in their last five games. The Jayhawks have scored at least 66 points in each game in the Tournament, but they are also facing a Defensive scheme which has been working really well for the Villanova Wildcats.
However, Kansas can call on a deeper rotation and they saw some of their better players break out of a slump in their win over the Miami Hurricanes in the Elite Eight. Even if Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack are unable to replicate their efforts against the Hurricanes, Kansas have shown they have other players that can step up and I think it will lead to some late buckets that allows them to pull clear of the Wildcats.
There has been something of a rivalry between Villanova and Kansas on the court in recent years, but it is the Wildcats who have gotten the better of things. They have beaten the Kansas Jayhawks in the NCAA Tournament in both 2016 and 2018, but the Wildcats are rarely this size of underdog and they are 0-2 against the spread the last couple of times when they are receiving at least 4 points.
Villanova have tended to be a tough out, but they are also 1-4 against the spread when facing a top ten team this season. The Number 1 Seed has tended to have the better of the Number 2 Seed in Final Four games down the years too and I think the depth of the Jayhawks proves to be too much for the Villanova Wildcats reeling from the injury suffered by Justin Moore.
Prediction
Lay the points with the favourite.
The Pick :
Kansas Jayhawks 72-65 Villanova Wildcats
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Kansas Jayhawks - 4 Points at -110 with BetOnline
