Rugby League

2024-07-14 - Manly Sea Eagles vs Newcastle Knights

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights
Rugby League : Australia : NRL
Sunday 14th July 2024 - KO 1605 AEST

Manly Sea Eagles

Manly start round 19 in 7th position on 21 points and a record of 8-1-7. As this match is affected by Origin selection, Manly will be without captain Cherry-Evans and Jake Trboyevic but do welcome back Turbo to fullback – lets hope he comes through this match and the remainder of the season unscathed. Manly still have one bye to go in round 22 and do have a relatively easy run to finish the season.

Last match for the Sea Eagles was away to the Cowboys in Townsville. The match was incredibly tight but Manly led at the break thanks to 2 tries to 1, 6-12. The Sea Eagles were lucky to be leading too with a couple of disallowed tries to North Queensland.

With numerous injuries, the Sea Eagles were hanging on by the barest of margins, Drinkwater tying the match with a penalty late on to take it to golden point. Both teams had their chances, Cherry-Evans slotting a field goal to claim a great away victory, 20-21.

Manly Sea Eagles Team News - DCE and Jake Trboyevic are out with Origin, Koula is also out with injury. Jamie Humphreys comes in to fill the vacant half spot, Hopoate goes on to the wing, while Corey Waddell, Gordon Chan Kum Tong and Clayton Faulalo join the bench.

Newcastle Knights

Newcastle are one point behind the Sea Eagles in 9th with a record of 8-8, so a victory here would see them leap frog Manly into the top 8. Newcastle will also be without key players for this one, Gagai, Best and Ponga, are selected for Origin and as a lot of their attack is centred around Ponga, which we saw last weekend with a solid return from injury, Newcastle may struggle on attack.

Newcastle managed a hard fought victory away from home against Canberra in Canberra. The Knights winning a low scoring match 12-16, 2 tries to 3. Most of the points were scored early in each half and the match could have easily had a few more tries with more composure.

Newcastle Knights Team News - Kalyn Ponga will be in Maroons camp this week along with centres Bradman Best and Dane Gagai. This means an entirely new backline, Fletcher Sharpe, Krystian Mamapalangi, Dylan Lucas and Thomas Cant are all named to start. Phoenix Crossland returns from concussion at hooker and Adam Elliott comes in at lock with Mat Croker reverting to the bench.

Odds

The home team Manly will start favourites, $1.40 to $3.00, the line 8.5 points and total points is 49.5

The Betting Verdict

With both of these teams on the edge of the top 8 and within just a solitary point of each other, this match takes on a whole new meaning as we approach the finals series in just 8 weeks. Whoever wins this match will push one step closer to the top 8, the loser however, will almost certainly find it much harder to make the post season.

Newcastle come into this match after winning 2 in a row against Canberra and Parramatta, while the Sea Eagles mixed form have them winning 2 of the past 3, over the Cowboys, Dragons and a loss in the middle against Souths.

The match is to be played at Manlys home ground, 4 pines park, aka Brookvale oval. Newcastle have lost nine of their past 11 games at Manlys home ground and their overall record is 4-11 while the hoe team Sea Eagles have won five from six at 4 Pines Park this season and overall 61%. The Knights and Sea Eagles have met 59 times with Manly holding a 35-23 advantage with one draw.

The Knights have been good away from home this season, winning four of their past five away games after losing the first 3 away matches in 2024. This does make for good reading for Newcastle but this is a vastly different team running out for the red and Blue, so I suspect this could be a harsh lesson handed out to Newcastle without three of their top players.

Manly have Jamie Humphreys starting in the halves, a player the Sea Eagles were hoping to have long term but he has recently signed with South Sydney. He is a gun junior I have followed for sometime and he will not be overawed on this stage. His partnership with Brooks should complement nicely so I expect a strong showing from Jamie.

Manly have rightly been selected as favourites here, a great home record and although both teams are effected by Origin selection and injuries, the Sea Eagles are still fairly strong in comparison.

With so many new players and combinations, the almost 50 point total seems a huge mountain to climb yet the bookies see it the other way around, the under is returning $1.97 which represents great value and is the suggested option for this match.