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2025-01-07 - Arsenal vs Newcastle United

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Arsenal v Newcastle United
Football: English League Cup Semi Final First Leg
Tuesday 7th January 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

Arsenal

Fans are going to be frustrated with Arsenal dropping some big Premier League points over the last month at a time when leaders Liverpool have perhaps looked a little more vulnerable than they have earlier in the campaign. The failure to build real consistent pressure on Liverpool is a disappointment, but Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal players can concentrate on Cup matters for the next several days.

Big home games are coming up for Arsenal beginning with this League Cup Semi Final First Leg and they will certainly want to have something to protect when heading to the North East early next month. It has been a few trophy-less years for the club now, but Arsenal are a step away from competing for the first silverware of the campaign having already beaten Bolton Wanderers, Preston North End and Crystal Palace in the League Cup.

Arsenal had won 4 in a row in all competitions and looked to building some momentum, but the 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday means half of their last 6 Premier League games have ended with the points shared. The Gunners have won 11 of their 14 home games played in all competitions this season as they prepare to play the first of five consecutive fixtures at the Emirates Stadium.

An illness has been working its way through the Arsenal camp and the likes of Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz have been affected. Jurrien Timber is available having served a suspension, but Ethan Nwaneri is expected to miss for a few games having picked up a muscle injury at the Amex Stadium.

Newcastle United

Strong performances over the last three weeks have just helped turn Newcastle United's season back around and Eddie Howe is still very keen on helping the club pick up a trophy to end an extremely long barren spell without one. Two years ago Newcastle United were beaten in the League Cup Final by Manchester United, but they are on the brink of returning to Wembley.

This is a tough Semi Final for Newcastle United, although the players will be back in North London filled with confidence. The Magpies needed Penalties to beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground early in the competition, but have followed up with home wins over Wimbledon, Chelsea and Brentford to earn their spot in the final four.

Newcastle United came from behind to beat Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday and they have now won 5 in a row in all competitions. That run includes winning each of their last 3 away games the Premier League since losing at Brentford and Newcastle United have been scoring a lot of goals in their recent fixtures on their travels.

Fabian Schar is available after a Premier League suspension, but Bruno Guimaraes is suspended for this League Cup tie having picked up two bookings in this competition. Sven Botman and Anthony Gordon suffered knocks on Saturday at Tottenham Hotspur, but both are expected to be available for selection.

Head to Head

Newcastle United beat Arsenal 1-0 at St James' Park in early November.

However, they have lost 12 of their last 13 visits to Arsenal, including a 4-1 thumping last season.

Prediction

The League Cup Semi Final is still played over two Legs, although the expanded European competitions means they are not both played in January.

The Second Leg will take place early next month, although both Newcastle United and Arsenal will be looking to lay the foundations to progress to Wembley Stadium at the Emirates Stadium.

Both teams have been in decent form over the last month, even if Arsenal fans are disappointed that they have not been able to capitalise on the Liverpool Premier League slips. Mikel Arteta's squad has been hit with illness and injury around the turn of the New Year, which is not helping, and the lack of goals continues to be a problem.

Most Arsenal fans would love the club to make a move for Alexander Isak, but the latter will be on the opposite side of the pitch in this League Cup Semi Final. The Swedish international has hit a real purple patch of form and will be the danger man for Newcastle United, who have also won 3 away games in a row since their 4-2 loss at Brentford.

Bruno Guimaraes is suspended, which is a blow, but Eddie Howe's team will believe they still have enough about them to cause problems for Arsenal. One goal may be all it takes to avoid a defeat at the Emirates Stadium considering the Arsenal issues in the final third, and Newcastle United will fancy their chances of beating this opponent back in the North East.

Second guessing the approaches of managers is not easy, but the feeling is that this is going to be a tighter match than the layers expect.

It is odds on to be more than two goals, but games between Arsenal and Newcastle United have leaned towards the under three mark more often than not in recent seasons.

In fact 10 of the last 13 between the clubs have ended with two or fewer goals shared out and the belief is that neither will want to give too much away here. The onus may be on Arsenal with them hosting, but they may need to lean on the defensive strength to try and earn that advantage with key attacking players either recovering from illness or expected to miss out.

An early goal will change the whole approach to the fixture, but defences may be on top early in this one and it may lead to a low-scoring game with the narrow edge being with Arsenal to secure a lead to take to the North East.