English Other

2025-02-05 - Newcastle United vs Arsenal

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Newcastle United v Arsenal
Football: English League Cup Semi Final Second Leg
Wednesday 5th February 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV

Newcastle United

A couple of setbacks in the Premier League and a transfer window that was perhaps too quiet for the liking of the fans has just put some pressure on Newcastle United. However, in the main the team remain in a very positive position and the next four months could be very special for Eddie Howe and his men who are hoping to win silverware and also return to the Champions League.

Two goals at the Emirates Stadium have put Newcastle United in a very strong spot in this League Cup Semi Final, but Eddie Howe will be reminding his players that it is only 'half time' and a big ninety minutes are coming up. The Magpies did reach the League Cup Final two years ago before coming up short against Manchester United, and it would be a big disappointment for The Toon Army if they are not travelling down to London for a big Cup Final next month.

Newcastle United have won 10 of their last 12 games in all competitions going all the way back to early December, but the exceptions have both been in fixtures played at St James' Park. Not only have Newcastle United failed to win those matches, but the defeat to Fulham on Saturday means The Magpies have lost consecutive fixtures at home.

Joelinton is a big doubt for Newcastle United, while Callum Wilson is being eased back into action. He may play some part here and in the FA Cup tie at Birmingham City coming up this weekend, while Harvey Barnes is expected to return later this month.

Arsenal

There was clearly an edge to the Premier League game at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, both in the stands and on the pitch, and Arsenal produced a big performance to crush Champions Manchester City 5-1 to keep pace with leaders Liverpool. Winning the title is still going to take a monumental effort from the team, but the focus shifts to one of the two remaining Cup competitions in which Arsenal are still involved.

Winning trophies has been the one missing aspect of the improvements made under Mikel Arteta and the early FA Cup exit means Arsenal's players will have some warm weather training coming up. They would love to head off with a place in the League Cup Final secured, but Arsenal are two goals behind after the home Leg and this is a big test for The Gunners.

Arsenal were beaten on Penalties in the FA Cup Third Round just days after losing to Newcastle United in the League Cup Semi Final First Leg, but they have won 4 in a row in all competitions ahead of the Second Leg. The side are unbeaten in 9 away games ahead of this trip to the North East and Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 on their travels.

Ben White is still hoping to return when the Premier League resumes in ten days time, but he is not expected to be available this week. Bukayo Saka remains on the sidelines with manager Mikel Arteta suggesting that he 'does not know' when he will be back.

Head to Head

Newcastle United made it two wins from two matches against Arsenal this season when winning the First Leg of this Semi Final at the Emirates Stadium.

An early Alexander Isak goal separated the two teams at St James' Park in the Premier League in November and Newcastle United have won 3 of their last 4 at home against Arsenal.

Prediction

A late goal in the first half and an early strike in the second has given Newcastle United a clear edge in this League Cup Semi Final, but it would be foolish of fans to be booking hotels in and around Wembley Stadium already.

Of course a two goal lead to protect in front of the passionate fans in the North East gives Newcastle United an advantage, but they have lost back to back Premier League games here against Bournemouth and Fulham.

The solid recent home record against Arsenal will give the home team plenty of confidence, but there is a balance to be found between attack and defence. Eddie Howe may want his team to play the game as they would any other, but the Knock Out two Legged tie is a different situation and it is only natural for players to want to protect what they have first and foremost.

With that in mind, it would be strange to see Newcastle United to push forward and take the game to Arsenal from the first whistle.

Instead they may be expecting a fast start from The Gunners who will want to use the momentum of the last thirty minutes against Manchester City to make a positive start to this one. Mikel Arteta will be reminding his players of the importance of scoring the first goal and seeing how Newcastle United will handle the pressure, but Arsenal have shown some patience in recent matches and the feeling is that they will not want to take too many risks early and fall further behind.

Games between Newcastle United and Arsenal have been pretty competitive and the under 2.5 goals market is perhaps priced up at odds against due to the game state of this Semi Final. The expectation may be teams willing to take chances, but a clean sheet feels important to both Newcastle United and Arsenal and that may be evident in the intensity of the teams.

At some point you would have to feel that Arsenal are going to have to take chances and this Newcastle United do have big threats in the final third.

However, confidence has to have been dented by the consecutive home defeats suffered and Newcastle United will have plenty of respect for Arsenal.

Eddie Howe's team do hold two wins against Arsenal this season and both in matches where they have kept a clean sheet.

It also means that 8 of the last 9 between these two clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out- the last 6 at St James' Park have also ended below that total and this might be a lower scoring fixture than the layers are anticipating.